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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (44745)	10/1/2011 4:42:23 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78666

Re: Material/Mining Stocks From your list I own BHP, VALE, & AAUKY. Not on your list I have shares in AGPPY, AU, GFI, CNX (mainly coal & NG) & AMHPF. I sold my junior minor RIC which actually sells at a reasonable PE of 16 (many of these JR miners do not even have earnings). I also liked that they were located in Canada. My group of stocks has limited Canadian exposure. http://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/AGPPY.PK,AU,GFI,AMHPF.PK,RIC,BBL/view/dv;_ylt=Av575vxz9PBg1VAkmzqHqLsLv7gF;_ylu=X3oDMTEydDA3OGxkBHBvcwMxMQRzZWMDeWZpVGFibGlzdARzbGsDZGV0YWlsZWQ- These companies represent 15% of my portfolio at this time. It has been as high as 20% early this year. Many of these miners and natural resource stocks I have owned for 10 years or more. From time to time I have been peeling off shares and moving the proceeds into the integrated oil companies but keeping the proceeds in the natural resource theme. You will notice that BHP and BBL are essentially the same company but held in different currencies (BBL= British pound, BHP=Australian $) My overall theme for this group is that they help the portfolio preserve it's purchasing power through the ownership of companies that own natural resources and precious metals. My biggest concern is if any one or more of these companies would suffer a significant loss in value due to a European EURO collapse. What's your take on how this general sector would fair if such an event occurred and would any one of these companies benefit more than another (through their traded currency) from the collapse of the Euro? My thinking is that the Australian Dollar would be a possible beneficiary currency and maybe the Canadian $. This would point to BHP as being the best performer of the group. BHP is the largest and most diversified company too. This group has always generate good income for my portfolio but now I am relying on the group to help protect the portfolio from a EURO implosion. Is my thinking on the right track? EKS

To: Spekulatius who wrote (44745)	10/2/2011 12:22:20 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78666

I bought a tiny bit of RIO recently as well as FCX. I may buy some VALE and/or AAUKY.PK at further drops.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (44745)	11/14/2011 3:18:00 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78666

I have done very little buying (except XLS) but have moved some positions around TC- sold. Completely out of mining (I also mentioned I sold Vale before) FLU.VI - successfully swapped high cost shares for lower cost shares. Flughafen Wien has new management in place and they have actually shown good traffic numbers (+~7% in September). The big deal will be get the new terminal into operation without delays or issues. Next years earnings will be down due to startup costs and because they will take the full depreciation expense on the new terminal, while this terminal will only open mid year 2012 but 2013 should look much much better. BK - sold some higher cost shares in my taxable account last week and hope to buy back at the same price or lower after 31 days. Other than that I have eliminated marginal positions in financials like C as well (this time at a profit). For the most part, i have substantially de-risked my portfolio. I continue to believe, that there is substantial risk for a recession and/or a credit event (probably induced by Europe but it could also be trouble in the US) that skews risk reward towards the downside. Some of political developments in Europe are quite positive (Berlusconi's resignation and a new government lead by Monti) but then on the other hand the result of Italy's latest debt auction were very worrisome. Sign of the times - Barrons had an article about Advisers that have gone all ETF. These guys don't even attempt to be stockpickers or mutual fund pickers any more, they try to be in the "right" sectors. One of the revealing reasons they stated is that they stated is that if a stock with bad headlines is in a mutual fund they have picked, they get a lot of calls from customers but they get none if a stock is in an ETF. Never underestimate the power of incentives! It is my opinion that ETF and their rebalancing makes for a lot of weird trading, which I think can lead to exploitable opportunities. I believe that in the end the prevalance of ETF's will make the stock market much more volatile. online.barrons.com