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To: axial who wrote (39834)	10/1/2011 11:22:13 PM
From: ftth	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 46821

First off, nobody is claiming there is a spectrum shortage TODAY. The predictions of spectrum shortage are based on traffic growth forecasts by Cisco and many others, which put the growth in the range of a 70-100% compound annual growth rate. Apply that traffic growth rate to the available spectrum and the spectrum gets fully consumed some years out. It's just math. (All the various ways that growth rate could be slowed down relative to spectrum consumption is a different discussion, and is not made as part of that article either) If those forecasts prove to be correct and applicable worldwide, there will be a spectrum shortage in EVERY country, in the not too distant future. It's the dense urban areas, which exist in every country, where the shortage first becomes apparent. If the forecasts are too high, that just pushes out the timeline. Assigning spectrum is a multi-year, multi-step process. You don't start it when there is already trouble, because the trouble will just compound over the years as the process works itself through. So you have to start the process now, and make some assumptions. Users consume spectrum at whatever rate they do (until such time as there are onerous restrictions put in place). There is currently 170MHz of spectrum that is widely deployed and in heavy use in the US (Citi says 192MHz but I think they are counting Verizon's 700MHz C block which is no where near widely deployed OR heavily used so it doesn't count in that spectrum bucket ), yet users are not generally suffering effects of congestion. So I would say in general the carriers have deployed (spent capex) at about the right pace from a business perspective, and been able to detect when they need to add capacity and have done so. It would be a stupid business decision to deploy all the 538 MHz the article says is being hoarded, if it won't be consumed and mostly sits idle. That's not to mention that 538MHz includes many new bands and covering all those makes for more expensive radios (user equipment) and dynamic band swtiching, which users would surely be complaining about if things had been deployed that way. PS I'm not arguing how the various alternative approaches to spectrum could change things. I'm just arguing what I feel are flaws in the article's argument, along the lines it is argued.

To: axial who wrote (39834)	10/10/2011 1:28:46 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 46821

The operators and industry organizations say that they need some 500MHz of additional spectrum. On the other hand, there is spectrum that has yet to be put to use, including by the firms that argue most strongly that more is needed or that they should be allowed to do acquisitions to secure more, ie. AT&T+T-Mobile. When each operator is analysed on both small and large operators can have immediate problems in transitioning spectrum to more efficient networks and also have spectrum that sits fallow waiting for future expansion. Smaller operators tend to deploy as soon as is practical and do not have enough spectrum to remain competitive. That hording of spectrum by the largest operators combined with the dominant marketshare positions and supply, network utilization and subscriber control that extends into slants the playing field towards their continued dominance and further pressures for consolidation into fewer hands. Technology has advanced to the extent that if all networks were deployed using LTE there would be sufficient capacity to serve needs over the next several years without more becoming available. Many methods within the latest standards that can increase throughput over current deployments have not been put to use, even in the recent LTE networks. Operators have yet to make extensive use of microcell, Co-MIMO/MU-MIMO, and tiered common technology multiple-carrier architectural advances. These will eventually yield about a 10X increase in per unit area, per hertz spectrum bandwidth compared to common 3G networks. In between what can be done, what operators are inclined to do and advocate to continue or gain dominance, and what factions of the government are pressed to do either for the money or for political patronage, the outcome usually becomes sub-optimal and at odds with the best interests of the public in the long run. The best that can be hoped for is compromise between these forces of consolidation and monopoly in the use of spectrum and open market efficiencies.