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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rolla Coasta who wrote (80706)	10/2/2011 12:19:32 PM
From: elmatador	1 Recommendation Respond to of 217847

“It’s easier to come back from a cyclical slowdown,” she claims – which contrasts with the deeper, structural issues faced by indebted developed nations. Emerging markets fundamentals stay firm despite sell-off By Alice Ross Emerging market currencies have experienced a remarkable fall from grace. In August, investors could not speak more highly of the Singapore dollar or the South Korean won. Emerging market economies that had less debt and better growth prospects were seen as a safe bet, with UK wealth managers allocating money towards Asian currency funds. By the start of August, the won had strengthened 6 per cent against the dollar since the beginning of the year, while the Singapore dollar had risen more than 5 per cent. The Brazilian real had risen 5 per cent and the Mexican peso was up nearly 3 per cent. Fast forward to September, and the market sell-off in equities had ravaged emerging market currencies indiscriminately as investors moved into the relative safety and liquidity of the US dollar. The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index fell 2.5 per cent against the dollar in less than three weeks in September, wiping out almost all its gains since the start of 2011. Central banks including those in South Korea, Indonesia and Poland have responded by taking action to strengthen their currencies and prevent them sliding further – a far cry from fears earlier this year that emerging markets might try to stem the strength of their currencies. “[Three months ago] I was still long term bullish on emerging market currencies but it’s all gone pear shaped now,” says Benoit Anne, emerging markets strategist at Société Générale. He warns that emerging market currencies are vulnerable to both a global recession and a financial crisis, pointing out that Asian currencies in particular have not weakened as much as they did following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. “They still underprice the global risks, in my view,” he says. Mr Anne also questions whether central banks will be able to do much to shore up their currencies amid further market turmoil. “For intervention to be successful a central bank needs to be prepared to spend a vast amount of FX reserves and deliver a very strong policy message, such as defending the currency at a certain level. In the absence of that, intervention will not have much of an impact,” he says. “For some central banks, it will be so costly they will give up.” But many believe the sell-off has been indiscriminate. “Currencies in emerging markets have fallen unreasonably,” argues Chris Weafer, chief strategist with Troika Dialog. “They have been sold as part of global risk-phobia and irrespective of better fiscal and growth conditions in most developing economies.” Analysts believe that, once the recent market sell-off has settled down, the longer-term prospects for emerging market currencies remain strong. “Once the global backdrop has improved, there will be ample room for emerging market currencies to stage a strong rebound,” say analysts at Société Générale in a note. Its long term top picks are the Turkish lira, the won and the Mexican peso. Coutts, the private bank, believes that emerging currencies will remain attractive to “growth-starved investors”. In a monthly note, it states: “We see the recent pullback in emerging currencies against the dollar as a function of the extreme level of risk aversion and the dollar’s status as the world’s most liquid currency, rather than any shift in fundamental drivers. “Currencies of commodity exporters like the Australian and Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone have lost some of their allure amid a weakening global growth outlook, but they should remain underpinned by growth that is still well above the pace of the G4 [dollar, euro, yen and sterling].” “With investors throughout the developed world still secularly underweight, and with the fundamentals in emerging markets still superior to those in developed economies, the case for investing remains a strong one, long-term,” says Gavin Redknap, emerging market currency strategist for Nikko Asset Management Europe. Sophia Drossos, currency fund manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, believes the recent falls in emerging market currencies are simply a cyclical setback. “It’s important for investors to keep in mind that these are very cyclically geared economies – many are commodity exporters, trade is a big part of their economies, so any slowdown in the US or Europe will have negative spillover effects.” But she believes this is precisely the reason why emerging market currencies will rebound quicker from the current crisis. “It’s easier to come back from a cyclical slowdown,” she claims – which contrasts with the deeper, structural issues faced by indebted developed nations. However, most agree that emerging market currencies face further volatility ahead.

To: Rolla Coasta who wrote (80706)	10/2/2011 5:21:37 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217847

hello and frankly, you are ranting. there are all sorts of secret this and confidential that in hk, and mainland secret police, frankly, just is not one of our worries. again, frankly, hk belongs to hk, because no mainlander wants to be blamed for screwing up hk, and, once more frankly, hk is easy to screw up, because hk is just about perfect, all considered. twice more, frankly, it is very exceedingly easy to screw up perfection, for any change has far greater chance of leading towards imperfection. as i sense, by speaking to those around me from all nations wishing to engage more closely w/ hong kong, perfection, relative to all the enveloping imperfections rising in all lands. do you not sense same? frankly please. cheers, tj