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To: Peter Ecclesine who wrote (39841)	10/4/2011 7:37:42 AM
From: axial	Respond to of 46821

Hi Peter - "Current networks are not up to the challenge of meeting the pressure of the future networked society and will need to be replaced ... it would be necessary to move to a fourth generation network to be able to deliver the services required." A motherhood sound-bite. We expect Ericsson (excuse, that would be Mister Ericsson, according to the Supremes) and all the other infrastructure players to beat that drum. Only natural. Carriers too. In 2020, what will it mean? In the last 10 years we've seen standards-based radio eat the lunch of proprietary solutions. PCS and LMDS are history. Fibre has moved ahead unevenly: quickly in some jurisdictions and markets, crawling in others. Regulators can't keep up. Governments desperately need revenue from spectrum auctions, so they won't be going cold-turkey for CR or anything else that changes their revenue picture in the foreseeable future. Carriers are leveraging former ISM bands for microcells and on/off ramps for wireless traffic; they're circling "free" WiFi use like hungry vultures. LTE looks like a success, after carriers kicked Ericsson's a** to get moving, and after WiMax started making incursions into Mister Ericsson's business. M2M is growing, wireless penetration continues to expand and takes a steady upgrade path from 2G in underdeveloped markets. The Internet has created unexpected demand for throughput and capacity. 4GIP? Wasn't such a network proposed a decade ago, and shot down until the FCC finally approved spread spectrum at 2.4 GHz? And what was the name of the infrastructure company that withdrew support, killing the initiative? It ain't the technology, it's the money. If Mister Ericsson or any other telecomms player thinks we're dazzled by a vision of companies in a valiant struggle to serve the public's needs, he better think again. Jim