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To: spitsong who wrote (16945)10/3/2011 7:08:49 AM
From: Bill  Respond to of 29239
 
Nice handicapping, Spit. I would move Kennedy up to the top tier based on his strong close.



To: spitsong who wrote (16945)10/5/2011 7:50:46 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 29239
 
Fister's Unexpected Great Season

fangraphs.com



To: spitsong who wrote (16945)9/27/2012 2:59:22 PM
From: spitsong2 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 29239
 
2012 NL Cy Young contenders

Leader              W-L   CG   IP    BB   K    ERA  WHIP   BAA  WAR  comments
----------------- ----- -- ----- -- --- ---- ---- ---- --- -------------------------------------
R.A. Dickey 19-6 5 220.0 52 209 2.66 1.04 .223 5.2 First knuckleballer to win?

A Step Behind W-L CG IP BB K ERA WHIP BAA WAR comments
----------------- ----- -- ----- -- --- ---- ---- ---- --- -------------------------------------
Clayton Kershaw 12-9 2 211.2 58 211 2.68 1.04 .214 5.4 Playoff race + hip injury = ouch
Matt Cain 16-5 2 214.1 50 191 2.77 1.04 .222 3.7 Finishing strong
Kyle Lohse 16-3 0 205.0 37 134 2.77 1.08 .236 4.1 All three losses by one run
Johnny Cueto 19-9 2 210.0 48 164 2.83 1.18 .253 5.7 Just 5-4 in last 10 starts
Gio Gonzalez 20-8 2 193.1 73 201 2.84 1.12 .204 4.6 First in majors to 20 wins

Not Quite W-L CG IP BB K ERA WHIP BAA WAR comments
----------------- ----- -- ----- -- --- ---- ---- ---- --- -------------------------------------
Jordan Zimmerman 12-8 0 189.1 41 148 2.90 1.16 .250 4.5 8 ER in 3.2 IP vs. Cards on 9/1
Cole Hamels 16-6 2 208.1 51 208 3.11 1.13 .238 4.0 Another excellent year
Madison Bumgarner 16-10 2 204.1 47 187 3.26 1.11 .233 2.3 Just 5-4 in last 10 starts

Honorable Mention W-L CG IP BB K ERA WHIP BAA WAR comments
----------------- ----- -- ----- -- --- ---- ---- ---- --- -------------------------------------
Stephen Strasburg 15-6 0 159.1 48 197 3.16 1.15 .230 2.8 Not enough IP even before shutdown
Cliff Lee 6-8 0 198.0 28 195 3.18 1.13 .257 3.9 Just 6 wins?!

WAR is from baseball-reference.com:
baseball-reference.com

A new documentary, "Knuckleball!", which came out earlier this month, might help ex-Ranger, ex-Mariner, ex-Twin R.A. Dickey on his way to a Cy Young award -- amazingly, no knuckleballer has ever won a Cy Young, but this year Dickey has the numbers to make it happen.

mlb.mlb.com

Kershaw has what might usually be a season-ending hip injury, with probably the only reason he hasn't been shut down being that his Dodgers are not far from a playoff spot, though the hot Cards are pulling away fast. With Kershaw's remaining innings limited, it looks like either Dickey or Hamels will get the strikeout title. If Dickey gets it and maintains his ERA lead, he's only one win away from tying Gio for the Wins lead and at least a partial pitching triple crown, which would give him an almost insurmountable edge for the Cy Young, I think.

I personally do not believe that Gio or Zimmerman has a realistic shot at the Cy Young because they just haven't pitched enough innings -- Gio may finish the season with just over 200, but I don't believe his other numbers are enough to make up for it, especially when the only thing he really has going for him is that he has 20 wins, which two more pitchers (Dickey and Cueto) might match, and both have other numbers that are mostly better than Gio's.