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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (6430)	10/3/2011 1:31:12 PM
From: DD™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

It looks like the S&P closing high was 1,363.61, on 4/29/11 bigcharts.marketwatch.com So, the corrected bear market breach is 1090.88, only 1.2% from current intraday levels. DD

To: marc ultra who wrote (6430)	10/3/2011 4:25:44 PM
From: Kirk ©	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

The lower close on lower volume than the Aug 8 low COULD be good news for a rally. Otherwise, if we go lower I predict Mr Brinker will retire (perhaps involuntarily) when his contract is up for renewal before Superbowl Sunday.

To: marc ultra who wrote (6430)	10/6/2011 1:37:59 AM
From: marc ultra	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

I think this bounce with a turn-around Tues and some follow-through is not surprising given the extreme bearish sentiment and oversold conditions we were in. Net bulls in II was down to 43.2% which I don't recall in many years. I continue to believe given the ECRI's new outlook that rallies are selling opportunities, not buying opportunities. I also think Bob's model has no chance predicting the upcoming bear I expect because it's simply not designed for this type of situation. We have a long history of bull markets ending near new highs and with overly positive sentiment, growth too fast and Fed policy getting tighter rather than looser. That is what Bob's model needs to see to call a bear. These are different situations. Here, like 2008 we're going to go from a position of an already weak market and economy and what seems like compelling valuation and extreme negative sentiment, to again like 2008 go into a recession caused by one factor only while all others are screaming bullish. That one indicator is of course the economy which if the ECRI is correct as I believe they will prove to be, will overwhelm all these other very bullish indicators and plunge us into a recession and a bear. I don't think Bob will be really be making a "mistake" per se because his model will be staying strong bull but the economy will drag us down to a bear. I think one has to go that extra distance and understand the model the market timer is working off of and try to evaluate the type of situations why a timing model will fail and in fact it will be for the same reason it was so successful in 2000 and 2003. If Bob had the type of model that would call the bear I'm expecting this year or the one in 2008 then I don't think it would have been as successful at making calls in 2000 and 2003. A 2008 and the current scenario is simply not what we've been seeing for many years so it is simply not constructed into his model when he looked at historical factors that lead to a bear. I don't think Europe or a better than expected jobs report can help us anymore. I am willing to go out on a limb here and go directly against Bob and his model and instead give great weight to the ECRI call because my experience and knowledge of Bob's model and the ECRI tells me we'll be in a bear in probably the not too distant future. From the way I interpret the ECRI call and incorporate their probably of being correct based on history, I'm comfortable being a bear now as a recession and new bear should be inevitable.