Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (80848)	10/4/2011 11:00:37 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 217752

hi c2, as whenever the arena is not clear, we best make no moves and simply stay with the tried and true. my gaming moves (long deeply out of money puts on gld and slv and slightly out of money puts on spy, all of 6+months durations), Message 27678805 Message 27678627 ... although large even in monetary terms is larger due to leverage acting w/i the coming 6-months) amount to 1.39% of total nav allocation. i am trying to: (i) gamble that s&p500 shares may drop a lot even if qe3 is tee-ed up but not in timely fashion, or, gad, in timely fashion but made no difference (ii) hedge that my precious gold would be temporarily hit as collateral damage, and if so, i would have backstop from gains on puts to increase holdings of physical gold (iii) bet that should gold gets temporarily hit, silver would get hit harder, and if so, i would have backstop from gains on slv puts to step up to still more physical platinum anything can happen, because we had never been here before. buying puts is a bit of a style drift for me, and i treat the 1.39% as tuition. i do not believe all wars necessarily play out in exactly the same sorry way, and so i think maybe whatever happens going forward may be materially different than what transpired between q4 2008 and q1 2009 i can make cases to convince myself of any one scenario, with probability changing as one changes time horizon (i) gold and platinum and shares drop, usd rises (ii) gold and usd rises, platinum and shares drop (iii) gold and platinum and shares rise, and usd drops my cash position was at 50% from november 2007 to march 2009, and i suffered a tolerable but loss per lehman my cash position is now insignificant, and so i must fear and fear more, and so i did Message 27680739 my base case remains stocks down, usd *and* gold up. we have never been here before. cheers, tj