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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (54066)	10/4/2011 5:26:06 PM
From: Woody_Nickels	1 Recommendation Respond to of 95530

It takes a lot of 4% dividends to match a 300% cap gain. My plan is to buy low (bottom if I can catch it), then sell high (try to triple at least), and put some of the profits into dividend payers. It worked well for the last 'cycle'. My last Buy was on Feb 27, about 10 days before the market bottom. I sold when I had a triple, and allocated about 1/2 into some dividend payers like GE, BMY and CAG. So my income producing stocks AND my capital for high beta stock purchases both increased. One of the most difficult parts for me is patience, waiting for the market to tank, to play the cycle again. Sometimes I see the top, sometimes the bottom, but rarely both. I kick myself every day for missing some of the screaming bargains back in March '09. One was a 20 bagger. :( I should have taken a flyer on it, but prudence got the better of me. I bought a little GE at $9.75 instead. Another reason I went into some dividend payers is that I can always sell them for cash to put into techs, if needed. In the meantime I get some dividend. And... I'm getting older. Go Phillies! Woody

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (54066)	10/4/2011 5:42:37 PM
From: Return to Sender	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95530

Excellent reasoning Jacob. However I do think we can time reasonably well the next bottom. You are already looking for a 90% upside day already just like me. Today sure was not it. We may have the better part of another decade before actually hit the bottom. I shared this here recently but it is well worth reading again: pring.com The market may not bottom again until we see RSI(14) approach 30 on the monthly charts of the major averages: I don't have to get things right. All I have to do is better than I did the last couple of cycles and fully invest cause I did well on the limited amount I did invest. I have shared a ton of market breadth charts like this one that also told me to be careful at the last top: So in short I can tell you that while I don't have to nail the next bottom or top I do believe I can easily do better than I did at the last one or the one before it even though I believe we may be in a bear market for another 8 or 9 years. We have far more information at our fingertips than ever to help us make the right moves. JMHO, RtS RtS