Here's the entire conversation:
To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (44562) 9/25/2011 7:15:40 PM From: Sergio H Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 44813 <For some reason people think that "great depression" is continuous linear drop in all stock prices. It was anything but.>
And it came with thunderous volume. Kaboom!
Illustration is DJI weekly historical:
Open High Low Close Avg Vol Adj Close*
1929-12-30 238.43 249.24 235.95 248.48 3,420,000 248.48
1929-12-23 235.42 246.35 226.39 240.66 2,605,000 240.66
1929-12-16 253.02 253.17 227.20 230.89 3,256,000 230.89
1929-12-09 263.46 267.56 239.58 249.60 4,294,000 249.60
1929-12-02 238.95 261.52 236.13 260.12 3,972,000 260.12
1929-11-25 245.74 246.06 233.59 238.95 3,026,600 238.95
1929-11-18 228.73 250.75 222.93 245.74 2,874,000 245.74
1929-11-11 235.13 235.13 195.35 228.73 5,552,000 228.73
1929-11-04 269.75 269.75 217.84 236.53 5,630,000 236.53
1929-10-28 295.18 295.18 212.33 273.51 10,875,000 273.51
1929-10-21 323.87 333.01 272.32 301.22 7,082,000 301.22
1929-10-14 352.69 358.20 332.11 333.29 3,466,000 333.29
1929-10-07 341.36 358.77 338.86 352.69 3,828,000 352.69
1929-09-30 347.17 350.19 320.45 325.17 4,296,000 325.17
1929-09-23 361.16 365.03 343.26 344.87 4,470,000 344.87
1929-09-16 367.01 375.20 360.44 362.05 4,304,000 362.05
1929-09-09 377.56 380.57 359.70 366.85 4,852,000 366.85
1929-09-03 380.33 386.10 367.35 376.29 4,952,500 376.29
1929-08-26 375.44 383.96 370.34 380.33 4,068,000 380.33
1929-08-19 360.70 378.66 355.68 374.61 4,316,000 374.61
1929-08-12 345.71 364.39 345.71 361.49 4,024,000 361.49
1929-08-05 355.62 358.66 336.13 337.99 3,734,000 337.99
1929-07-29 343.73 358.31 336.36 353.08 3,242,000 353.08
1929-07-22 345.87 349.45 339.32 345.47 3,654,000 345.47
1929-07-15 345.94 349.79 339.98 345.20 4,216,000 345.20
1929-07-08 344.66 350.26 340.12 346.37 4,190,000 346.37
1929-07-01 333.79 348.67 332.23 344.27 4,280,000 344.27
1929-06-24 322.23 335.25 319.27 331.65 3,570,000 331.65
1929-06-17 314.26 323.46 313.58 320.68 3,112,000 320.68
1929-06-10 305.12 317.39 301.22 313.68 2,574,000 313.68
1929-06-03 299.12 312.00 298.53 307.46 3,156,000 307.46
1929-05-31 296.76 300.27 290.02 297.41 3,300,000 297.41 ...
To: Sergio H who wrote (44564) 9/25/2011 11:31:41 PM From: Jurgis Bekepuris Respond to of 44813 Sorry, we are here talking about years and decades, not days.
Good luck
To: Jurgis Bekepuris (who wrote) 9/26/2011 9:30:43 AM From: Sergio H The Great Depression created a trend change in the market. World events were ongoing but the trend change came suddenly and what is silly is that you can't see that. My post to you in private was better than a public post saying that you can't see the forest because the trees are in the way.
I posted that I did not think that TA discussion was appropriate for the thread and could not agree more.
Adios.
To: Sergio H (who wrote) 9/26/2011 9:34:57 AM From: Jurgis Bekepuris It's ridiculous to call a single day market drop "a forest" and multi-year depression that cost people livelihoods and lives "trees". Only a speculator can take such a look at events and I am not saying speculator kindly here.
Good luck
To: Jurgis Bekepuris (who wrote) 9/26/2011 9:30:43 AM From: Sergio H The Great Depression created a trend change in the market. World events were ongoing but the trend change came suddenly and what is silly is that you can't see that. My post to you in private was better than a public post saying that you can't see the forest because the trees are in the way.
I posted that I did not think that TA discussion was appropriate for the thread and could not agree more.
Adios.
To: Sergio H (who wrote) 9/26/2011 9:34:57 AM From: Jurgis Bekepuris It's ridiculous to call a single day market drop "a forest" and multi-year depression that cost people livelihoods and lives "trees". Only a speculator can take such a look at events and I am not saying speculator kindly here.
Good luck
To: Jurgis Bekepuris (who wrote) 9/26/2011 9:42:01 AM From: Sergio H People losing livelihoods is a consequence or result not an event. The forest is the market and the trees are right in front of you, or more specifically, because you don't see it, it's the stats I posted to you. Take another peek sometime and see if you can see it. Have a good day Jurgis and I am glad that we had this discussion in private.
Sergio
To: Sergio H (who wrote) 9/26/2011 10:21:35 AM From: Jurgis Bekepuris People who argue that market drop is an event that caused some significant economic/world event have tunnel market vision and huge hubris in assuming that the whole world revolves around their favorite yardstick. You say that TA is secondary for you, but IMHO you are just trying to persuade yourself about that. From what I see, you only care about trends and volumes, the fundamental events are only trees that should be removed from the viewpoint for you. I think continuing this discussion is pointless.
BTW, I have no problem to make this discussion public. Do you?
To: Jurgis Bekepuris (who wrote) 9/26/2011 10:32:25 AM From: Sergio H Just trying not to embarass you. Please note that I have not put any label on you or used demeaning terms such as PEOPLE LIKE YOU and that I am not as confused as you are.
Example:
<I think continuing this discussion is pointless.
BTW, I have no problem to make this discussion public. Do you?>
You just don't get it.
<People who argue that market drop is an event that caused some significant economic/world event have tunnel market vision and huge hubris in assuming that the whole world revolves around their favorite yardstick.>
This is not my argument at all. Take your time and think a little and maybe you will get it and maybe you won't.
To: Jurgis Bekepuris 9/26/2011 10:54:05 AM From: Sergio H Jurgis, on another topic....did you read the article in the link I posted. Doesn't it answer the question regarding Fairholm that was posed?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fairholme-fund-lands-in-foul-territory-2011-09-23?siteid=yhoof |
