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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jon Koplik who wrote (12833)10/6/2011 11:29:19 AM
From: Keith Feral1 Recommendation  Respond to of 33421
 
I'm not sure the oil industry needs any help from Washington, so I don't really understand why they are going to Obama for handouts. The market is giving them all the economic incentives they need to produce oil and gas at outrageous margins. They are friggin crazy if they think Washington is going to give them tax breaks to drill for $80 oil.

The argument that wind is not feasible with nat gas under $6 is just ridiculous. The energy group said the same thing about solar vs coal a couple years ago. Solar manages to plod ahead, although the pace of renewble replacement of conventional energy has been painfully slow.

If Bakken has 24 billion barrels, a number I tend to believe, they will be just fine. That's just 1 shale formation too. I think we'll have more oil than the market knows what to do with in another year or two in N America. Weak oil production from 2000 to 2007 set up a huge buildup of new resources to get our energy production back to all time highs.

It's amazing how much the US has reduced supplies in commodities the past 10 years, not just in energy. Last year, I remember hearing that liestock inventories were at 50 year lows. No wonder why ribeyes cost $15 a pound at the store. The US has all the resources we need, we just haven't had the courage to utilize our own resources. To some degree, that's a disgrace, but it still leaves the US with all the resources we need going forward.

If we want to plan forward, there should be subsidies for alternative energy. We need it to replace out demand for energy long term, and we need it as a backup plan if Bakken doesn't live up to it's expectations.