Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brad Bolen who wrote (8575)	11/19/1997 3:31:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

I agree that it looks very strange. Maybe it's a "flight to quality" from speculative to what are thought to be "safe" stocks. I use the quotation marks because I think everything is overpriced. From Tice's commentary at the Prudent Bear site a couple of days ago: We expect a decline in corporate profits to be caused by this condition of excess capacity far exceeding demand. We expect this to occur first in the high tech sector. There has been massive capacity built in the high tech area and now demand is beginning to slow down. Intel has already started to signal a slowdown in 1998 earnings. We believe that once investors realize that the high tech sector will not report the stellar earnings growth that is expected, this will exacerbate the stock market decline.

To: Brad Bolen who wrote (8575)	11/19/1997 4:07:00 PM
From: P.T.Burnem	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

So my question is as always: If the market is so healthy, why is it so %&^#$^# hard to make money?* The bull is sick: Dow is up ~1% yet advances are about even with declines. DJI and DJU are up but DJT - down. Techs are flat-to-down. The market's tone may very well change tomorrow, but today it is acting as though it anticipates a recession 3-6mo from now. As liquidity dries up, money will be made by shorting small- and mid-cap (non-SP500) stocks. PTB

To: Brad Bolen who wrote (8575)	11/19/1997 4:54:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Brad: a ton of index options expire worthless tomorrow. It must be profitable for folks like Goldman Sachs to keeps the indexes propped where they want them. They said the majority were expensive puts and calls on either side of 940. I'd love to know about the open options on the other indexes. At lunch CNBC mentioned there is a rush, yea, a panic, to get the circuit-breaker rules changed ASAP.

To: Brad Bolen who wrote (8575)	11/19/1997 6:27:00 PM
From: studdog	Respond to of 18056

Brad: >>But in the meantime I still want to know: where is one supposed to put their money now?<< I am having the same experience and feel that right now, cash is king. I am a little long, mostly in cash, and have some SPY short. The indexes are doing well but look what's doing it: companies like GE selling for a PE of 30 with earnings growth in the low teens. I cannot make myself buy these companies. so I sit in cash. IF they go up much more I will be sorely tempted to short them. Now I have to satisfy myself with shorting SPY. Maybe when all these puts expire we will see what the true direction of the market will be. Karl