To: Paul V. who wrote (114782 ) 10/6/2011 6:30:01 AM From: Hope Praytochange 2 Recommendations Respond to of 224750 Holiday Sales Expected To Be Tepid As Consumers Remain Cautious 10/06 12:01 AM NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Retailers can expected soft demand this Christmas, as the country's prolonged economic malaise saps holiday cheer. Sales during the holiday season are expected to rise 2.8% this year to $465.6 billion, while there could be less seasonal hiring, the National Retail Federation said. The projected sales growth compares with a 5.2% gain to $452 billion in 2010, as retailers bounced back from a decline driven by a weak economy the prior year. Retailers are expected to hire between 480,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers this holiday season, the trade group said, with most of the range on the low end of the 495,000 brought in last year. "This is an extremely tough time for retailers," said Matthew Shay, president of the NRF. "We are being told conditions continue to be challenging." This year has not turned out as it began. The start of 2011 saw optimism on signs of an economic upswing. But events abroad and in the U.S. curtailed that optimism and cracked consumer confidence. The U.S. unemployment rate "has not been this high for this long since the Great Depression," Shay said. Consumers are also dealing with an erratic stock market, modest income growth and rising prices. Recovery from the myriad difficulties "will not happen quickly," Shay said. As a result, the holidays are shaping up as potentially more promotional than usual. Retailers are expected to use planned promotions and unplanned discounts, and order less merchandise to make it through the season. Some retailers are still seeing their inventories rising faster than their sales, which does not bode well going into the holidays. The rise in extra inventory comes despite merchandise shipments being down. Container traffic fell 10% from July through September, the peak holiday shipping period, said Richard Steinke, executive director of the Port of Long Beach, the second busiest port in the U.S. "It's an indicator of a lack of consumer confidence," Steinke said. "People are still concerned with how much they spend and what they spend it on."