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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (6479)	10/9/2011 10:31:21 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

Well said about ECRI and the uninformed Sonders. In past down cycles, companies have had big losses to mark buying opportunities as they wrote off the costs of cutting staff until demand returned. This time, companies haven't staffed up since the big bottom in 2002/3 and many have moved to variable cost models, often using contractors over seas. It is possible many of the stocks that fell over 30% or more from their peaks that made higher lows in the recent market bottom, already priced in a shallow recession. If ECRI is right that we have more frequent recessions rather than slowdowns, then is it possible the bottom is in baring any external shock that kicks the market lower? FWIW, I believe if not for the attack in Iraq, Bob Brinker would have missed the October 2002 bottom. I recall pointing out the day before he issued his all in bulletin in 2003 that he might be missing an opportunity to get in close to the 2002 ows.. I recall one stock I added to in 2002 was up more than double, I took profits and got to buy it back in March 2003 well above its 2002 low price. The recent low and Brinker's bulletin reminds me of 2002/3... right up to one of my favorite stocks almost doubling from its August low, taking profits and buying it back recently about 40% higher then where I bought the shares near the August low... It may not be a bad thing if Brinker misses the first, real low as long as he got back in close to the low in 2003. This year, it didn't matter since he's been fully invested since 2003. I wasn't tracking ECRI's calls as closely in 2002 so I don't remember what they said in Oct 2002 and March 2003.