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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis who wrote (3231)	11/19/1997 6:24:00 PM
From: Tom L. French	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Dennis "down for the rest of the year." Yours is one of the first near term bearish (though Thean does qualify his bullish outlook) post I've seen. Why? BTW I also use FSESX, but I'm holding it, because I missed the top and--based on past experience--if you miss the top, I say hold on, don't sell. I still have >50% gain, but it is getting tense... because I'm expecting this to be a correction, NOT the end of this raging bull market in drillers. With electronics (FSELX), I got out at the top this time, which feels much better, I must say, than riding out these corrections. So, if you have a rationale for your down til the end of year comment, I'd love to hear. (I know I asked you, but here it some more of my experience... with Fidelity selects, which I've tracked in detail for years, once one of these drops down, first out of the top five or seven--based a 13 week ROC ranking--it's a short to intermediate term bearish sign, but then if it drops out of the top ten, it stays down for awhile and takes many many weeks if not months to come back into the top 5, which is where you make the best money. I'm not tracking the selects that closely anymore, but this drillers sell-off must have pullled FSESX out of the top ten. Actually, now that I've said that, I think I'll go check tomorrow.) Regards, TomLF

To: Dennis who wrote (3231)	11/19/1997 6:52:00 PM
From: Teddy	Respond to of 95453

Dennis, i think you're being just a little too bearish: "I'm afraid that this is only the beginning. This sector will be down for the rest of the year." There are about 30 trading days left in the year. Lets use NE for our example: About $30 1/2 today. If it goes down $1 per day it would be about $.50 per share at the end of the year. That would seem to be too low for a company that is estimated to earn about $2.30 per share. OK, that is extreem, it might only go down $.50 per day. That would make it about $15 per share at the end of the year, giving us a forward PE of around 6. Sounds about right for a company who's earnings are only expected to increase 90% next year. Dennis, i don't remember any one complaining while these stocks ran up day after day. A little profit taking does not concern me and i am more than a little happy to be able to add to my position at discount prices. My advice to those that do not like volitility: Don't look at the stock prices..... go to the ocean and gaze out at the horizion..... out where the waters is Deep..... sometimes you can hear the waves crashing against the platform..... and see that tiny red speck? That's the top of the crane lifting another tube..... boy, those semies sure are pretty: @ $100,000+ per day<G> Best wishes