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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (81383)	10/14/2011 2:33:05 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217906

Western Economies "Ugly Contest" Continuing Into 2012 And Beyond Stumbling along might actually be as good as it gets. The advanced economies of Europe and the U.S. are not going to see any significant changes to their unemployment rate, and some countries, like Germany and the U.K., will likely even seen an increase in joblessness next year, according to the International Monetary Fund. The ugly contest between the eurozone and the U.S. continues. “I think we are going to see several European banks suffering, maybe failing, and that will impact the global economy,” says Mikhail Zadornov, Russia’s former Finance Minister and president of the board of VTB 24, one of Russia’s top commercial lenders. “It won’t just be a slowdown. We will experience some shocks,” Zadornov told investors during last week’s Russia Calling conference in Moscow. At least 66 of Europe’s biggest banks would fail a revised European Union stress test and need to raise about 220 billion euros ($302.3 billion) of capital, Credit Suisse AG analysts said on Thursday. Big names like Deutsche Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland and BNP Paribas would need around 47 billion euros combined, Bloomberg reported. Societe Generale and Barclays would each need 13 billion euros to stay healthy, according to Credit Suisse analyst Carla Antunes-Silva’s note to clients on Thursday. In July, 8 banks out of 90 failed stress tests. Over the last several decades, Western economies have survived on a binge of personal and corporate debt. Deleveraging is not going to take just two years, says David Bonderman, a globe trotting investor and founding partner of TPG Capital, a $48 billion capital management firm. “The world is going into a slower growth mode for a very long time. Not just this year, and maybe not just this decade, so we need to come up with a set of policies to address that. Nothing particular good is going on in the U.S., but nothing particularly disastrous. However, it is proving to be as ill governed as any third world country. Policy making has been left up to the Fed. There will be ‘twists’ and turns, but there will not be smart use of dollars,” he says. Speaking at the Russia Calling conference last week, Bonderman said to rounding applause that Greece would default on its debt but that had to be taken into perspective. Greece is just 2% of the eurozone’s GDP. Argentina defaulted three times and five years later everyone accept the bond holders and the Paris Club forgot about it. After a Greek organized default, the Central Bank of Europe will bail out the remaining basket cases in south Europe and possibly Ireland as well. “The EU is the high cost producer of almost everything,” says Bonderman. “It has inflexible labor markets. It is not cost competitive. But nobody cares about that in Europe. What politicians really care about, and what the voters really care about is lifestyle. They don’t want to see people throwing cobblestones over at the palace gates. So politicians are willing to choose stability over growth and that means no growth in Europe for a long time.” Weakness in the advanced economies hasn’t translated into growth in the emerging markets, at least not as measured by the equity markets. The big emerging markets have been hampered by inflation, much of it caused by domestic demand and stronger currencies helped along by the loose monetary policies of the U.S. and Europe. Since QE2 ended, and since the U.S credit rating downgrade by Standard & Poor’s on Aug. 5, emerging market equities have suffered. They might be where the growth is, but investors prefer the safe haven of money market accounts and Treasurys. Since Aug. 8, the first trading day after the downgrade, the MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) exchange traded fund is down 9.39% while the S&P 500 is down just 0.28%. Rahul Chadha, head of Asia Pacific investments at Mirae Asset Global in Hong Kong says he expects investors to grow tired of watching the contests in this ugly pageant parade around on the catwalk, and will turn their focus south of the equator, where the economic outlook is less glum. “Over the next couple of months, Europe will likely see extreme volatility as the markets vacillate between hope and fear on the survival of Europe,” says Chadha. ”The eventual endgame would be a partial write-off of debts, a moratorium on principal repayment and even asset privatization by stressed nations. We believe that asset allocators in the developed world over the coming quarters will start significant re-allocation towards emerging markets as they get comfortable with the long term growth story and macro-economic health of these countries compared to the west,” Chadha says.

To: Tommaso who wrote (81383)	10/14/2011 5:26:57 PM
From: Snowshoe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217906

>>If I were the mayor, I would just hold off and let late October take care of the situation.<< NYC blinked, OWS emboldened to keep the pot boiling... Eviction of Occupy Wall Street From NYC Park Postponed news.yahoo.com Wall Street sit-in goes global Saturday news.yahoo.com LONDON (Reuters) - For an October revolution, dress warm. That's the word going out - politely - on the Web to rally street protests on Saturday around the globe from New Zealand to Alaska via London, Frankfurt, Washington and, of course, New York, where the past month's Occupy Wall Street movement has inspired a worldwide yell of anger at banks and financiers.