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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (158532)	10/14/2011 10:45:37 AM
From: Clydetheglide	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206316

Dennis - you dont happen to have a updated Credit Suisse report on Lundin Petroleum from Oct 13. Many thanks for all the good reports you serve us with.

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (158532)	10/19/2011 12:21:42 PM
From: Dennis Roth	1 Recommendation Respond to of 206316

SMID-Cap E&Ps 3Q11 Preview Weak Gas Prices to Pressure Capital Plans 17 pages, 13 exhibits Download Link: sendspace.com Updating EPS Estimates. While keeping ratings and target prices unchanged, we revise our 2011, 2012 and 2013 EPS estimates based on our updated assumptions on production, costs and basis differentials. Our 3Q11 EPS estimates rise by 1% and are 7% above consensus, while our annual EPS estimates for 2011, 2012 and 2013 rise by 1%, 2% and 2%, respectively. Relative to consensus, we are 1% above the street in 2011 and 12% above the street for 2012. Capital Spending in Marginal Basins at Risk. Natural gas prices have faced significant headwinds in light of higher-than-expected supply driven by onshore natural gas production. For an industry normally very focused on driving absolute production growth, some producers have hinted at dropping rigs and appear to be backing away from continuing to channel capital (even maintenance capital) in marginal basins. At the current futures strip, these basins include the Haynesville, Barnett (non-core), Fayetteville, Woodford Arkoma, Piceance, Granite Wash Hz (dry gas), and Cotton Valley. Since the end of 2Q11, gas-focused names have underperformed oil-focused names (-20% for gas vs. -15% for oil), amid the significant drop in natural gas prices. Gas-Levered Names Likely to Pressure Capital Spending / Asset Sales. We believe that a protracted weak natural gas environment would lead gas- levered operators to either reduce capital expenditures or shift capital toward liquids-rich plays that currently have higher rates-of-return whether it be emerging (high-risk) or established (high-cost). We believe some of this capital shift could come about through potential asset sales of marginal gas acreage at meaningful discounts. Catalysts and Operational Framework We highlight our recently published "U.S. Upstream Deep Dive" (from October 17, 2011), which tracks select North American basin activity and expected operational catalysts for over 50 operators across 12 key U.S. onshore basins. In the report, we present metrics and catalysts (acreage, current and future rigs, planned wells for 2011, well costs, IP rates and EUR estimates, expected well results, updated operator commentary) that we have assembled from press releases, conferences and presentations since the end of 2Q11 that should provide a frame of reference through the 3Q11 earnings season. The key U.S. onshore basins, include the Eagle Ford, Marcellus, Bakken/TFS, Permian, Granite Wash, Mississippian, Cana-Woodford, Fayetteville, Utica and California among others. Companies Mentioned (Price as of 18 Oct 11) Berry Petroleum Co. (BRY, $43.46, OUTPERFORM, TP $64.00) Brigham Exploration Co. (BEXP, $36.51, NEUTRAL [V], TP $37.00) Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc. (CRZO, $25.90, NEUTRAL [V], TP $29.00) Comstock Resources, Inc. (CRK, $17.02, OUTPERFORM, TP $29.00) Energy XXI (EXXI, $27.80, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $38.00) Forest Oil (FST, $12.43, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $17.00) GMX Resources Inc. (GMXR, $2.39, NEUTRAL [V], TP $3.00) Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp. (KOG, $6.18, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $8.00) PDC Energy (PETD, $22.13, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $35.00) Penn Virginia Corp (PVA, $5.94, NEUTRAL [V], TP $9.00) Quicksilver Resources, Inc. (KWK, $8.41, NEUTRAL [V], TP $9.00) Range Resources (RRC, $74.40, OUTPERFORM, TP $73.00) Rex Energy Corp. (REXX, $13.60, NEUTRAL [V], TP $13.00) Rosetta Resources Inc. (ROSE, $41.93, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $65.00) Statoil (STL.OL, NKr139.70, NEUTRAL, TP NKr164.00) Swift Energy Co. (SFY, $27.65, OUTPERFORM, TP $49.00) Venoco, Inc. (VQ, $9.53, NEUTRAL [V], TP $14.00) Whiting Petroleum Corp. (WLL, $42.29, OUTPERFORM, TP $67.00)

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (158532)	10/20/2011 7:40:35 AM
From: Dennis Roth	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206316

Newfield Exploration Co. (NFX) Alert: ‘Quick Read’: Q3’11 Earnings Miss on Output; Guidance Cut 20 October 2011 ¦ 8 pages ir.citi.com Conference Call – Tomorrow (Thursday) at 9:00 AM EDT. Dial-in: (719) 325-4921. No passcode needed. We plan to update our projections and provide further detail thereafter.

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (158532)	11/2/2011 10:20:08 AM
From: Dennis Roth	2 Recommendations Respond to of 206316

Talisman Energy Inc (TLM) Alert: ‘Quick Read’: Q3’11 In Line With Lowered Expectations 2 November 2011 ¦ 8 pages citigroupgeo.com Earnings Call – 1:00 pm EST today. Dial-in: (888) 231-8191.

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (158532)	11/4/2011 7:40:25 AM
From: Dennis Roth	4 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206316

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ) Q3’11 Wrap-Up: A Look Into 2012 – Canadian Oil Drives Growth 4 November 2011 ¦ 16 pages [url]https://www.citigroupgeo.com/pdf/SNA93491.pdf[/url] Adjusting Estimates – Based on actual third quarter results, rising operating cost trends, improved oil price differentials plus other fine tuning, we have slightly adjusted our 2011-13 EPS/CFPS estimates. Maintain Buy Rating with $50/share price target. EPS --------- Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ.TO) Strong Q3... 2012 Capital Budget Unveiled 5 pages, 1 exhibit Download Link: sendspace.com Q3 Results: CNQ has reported CFPS of C$1.60, above our C$1.41 forecast and consensus of C$1.42. Headline operating EPS of C$0.65 was also above our C$0.50 forecast and consensus of C$0.55. Backing out insurance proceeds related to the Horizon fire, we calculate ‘clean’ EPS of C$0.53. Relative to our C$0.50 forecast, the remaining ‘delta’ is largely due to a lower than expected tax rate (24% versus our 30% forecast). Production was also better than expected, averaging 612.6 kboe/d, above consensus and our 600 kboe/d forecast (and guidance for 600 kboe/d), due to better than expected thermal production and Horizon volumes. Thermal in-situ crude oil achieved record production of ~110 kb/d (vs our 100 kb/d forecast) due to continued pad additions at Primrose, strong overall performance in the quarter and the nature of the steaming and production cycles. Horizon recommenced operations August 16th, with production averaging 108.2 kb/d and 105.6 kb/d in September and October. 2012 Capital Budget: CNQ has provided its capital budget for 2012. Capital spending is budgeted at C$7.2 billion, including C$2 billion at Horizon (we currently forecast ~C$7 billion). CNQ is targeting 2012 production of 675– 726 kboe/d, representing a midpoint increase of 17% from the midpoint of 2011 average production guidance. Growth is driven largely by primary heavy crude, thermal in-situ (i.e. Primrose) and light oil and NGL production. We currently forecast 2012 production of 708.1 kboe/d. Other Updates: Construction at the Kirby Phase 1 SAGD project remains on cost and on schedule. Drilling on the first of seven pads is completed and has also commenced on the second pad, with completion targeted for Q4/11. First steam-in is expected late 2013. At Pelican Lake, regulatory approvals required to execute the 2012 expansion plans were received in Q3. Companies Mentioned (Price as of 02 Nov 11) Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ.TO, C$34.98, OUTPERFORM, TP C$51.00)

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (158532)	11/7/2011 3:10:55 PM
From: Dennis Roth	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206316

Ultra Petroleum Corp. (UPL) Q3’11 Wrap-Up: Marcellus Shale Beginning To Take Shape 6 November 2011 ¦ 19 pages citigroupgeo.com Adjusting Est’s, Increasing PT to $40 from $32 – Based on actual Q3 results and updated cost guidance, we have slightly revised our 2011, 2012, and 2013 EPS/CFPS estimates. Our price target increases to $40/sh from $32/sh based on improved outlook for the Marcellus.

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (158532)	11/11/2011 7:37:07 AM
From: Dennis Roth	3 Recommendations Respond to of 206316

E&P Third Quarter 2011 Earnings Wrap-Up Oil & Liquids Still Attracting The Most Attention 11 November 2011 ¦ 26 pages citigroupgeo.com Q3’11 Bottom Line – On average, Q3’11 EPS/CFPS for our E&P universe came in ahead of expectations, driven primarily by better-than-expected pricing realizations, while total production and costs were mostly in-line with our estimates. Hedging, on average, boosted natural gas price realizations by 17% while NGL realizations were 14% better than expected, driving the bottom-line beat. Liquids Growth Outpaces N.A. Natural Gas Growth – Total production for our coverage group increased 3% versus Q2’11, with total oil/liquids growth of ~4% surpassing the ~2% sequential rise in N.A. natural gas volumes. Liquids growth during the quarter was primarily driven by the liquids-rich onshore plays in the Permian and Williston Basins, the Eagle Ford, Marcellus and others, as well as an uptick in Canadian oil sands production. Year-over-year, total output increased ~5%, while total oil/liquids production grew 5.2% with North American natural gas volumes up 5.1%. On an “organic” basis, total production increased ~2% sequentially and 7% y-o-y. 2011 CapEx Guidance Essentially Flat This Quarter – E&P companies increased 2011 E&D budgets by just 1% (vs. a 3% uptick in Q2) and we now project spending to exceed cash flows by 6% this year. For 2012, early indications point to a 5% y-o-y increase in CapEx (though most have not officially provided guidance), equating to 97% of our current cash flow forecasts (based on $4.35/MMBtu natural gas and $90/Bbl WTI), emphasizing the continuing allocation of most capital towards oil and liquids-rich projects. JVs Catapulted To Center Stage – With Chesapeake announcing its highly-anticipated partnership in the Utica Shale, valuing the acreage at ~$15k/net acre, Devon looking to bring in a partner to co-develop its 1.2 mm acres across five emerging plays (Utica, Niobrara, Mississippi Lime, Tuscaloosa and Michigan A1 Carbonate), Noble closing on its Marcellus JV with Consol, Anadarko officially confirming the possibility of a deal covering its Niobrara acreage outside of Wattenberg, Sandridge announcing a deal in the Mississippian (~$4.5k/net acre – undiscounted), and others, JVs took the limelight during the quarter. Meanwhile, many prospective buyers seem to be passing by most dry gas assets, with Nexen, Encana and other E&P’s still looking for partners to pick up portions of their acreage in the Horn River Basin, Montney, Haynesville/Bossier and other gassy plays. Oil and Gas Hedges Below Last Year – With the 12-month NYMEX strip falling to an average of $4.35/MMBtu during the third quarter, most companies declined to add natural gas hedges. Consequently, our universe is positioned to enter 2012 with only 29% of N.A. natural gas volumes hedged for the ensuing year, down from 35% last year and 40% in 2009. Similarly, E&P companies have less crude oil volumes hedged for next year with only 20% of 2012 volumes hedged versus 31% one year ago. Gulf of Mexico Outlook Brightens – The pace of permitting has picked up in the second half of this year and both E&Ps and service companies have expressed more confidence about the outlook headed into 2012, with some expecting the rig count to approach pre-Macondo levels by the middle of next year.