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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (93319)	10/16/2011 6:36:42 PM
From: William H Huebl	Respond to of 94695

A long-time saying in IT is "If you can't dazzle them with your footwork then baffle them with the BS." So at the risk of being accused of trying to baffle you with the BS: The short version is that my indicator summary ranges from -20 to +20 and it is in neutral territory right now (-5 to +5). This is after being strongly negative up until October 10th. If that number gets into the +10 area I will know things have changed, at least in the intermediate term, to bullish. From a strategic, long term perspective, and this may be the BS part, the -DI from the ADX on SPY is trending higher since the beginning of the year. If that broke down, we would have reason to think the longer term trend has changed from negative to positive. And the same thing is true of the +DI from the ADX on SPY - it is trending down also indicating a bearish cast to the markets. And of course the ROC on SPY is in the process of breaking out from a down-trend which started at the begining of the year but hasn't gone positive yet. Should it go positive, that would be a clear indication to me that the bearish part is over. And you mentioned things like retracement levels which I also look at but I also check out "Gappiness." If you look at SPY, which to me is a volume-based surrogate for the markets in general, from Dec 2010 through mid-Feb or so in 2011, you find very little "gappiness." To me, and maybe I am all wrong, that tells me the major players in the market are reasoned, prudent money managers rather than trigger-happy traders and wild program trading... again, I could be all wrong. Then look after Feb 2011 and it gets worse and worse and worse until now hardly a week goes by without seeing several really big gaps in trading. And I know I have seen some indicators widening over a period of time in their swings back and forth... showing the emotionality in the markets. These things do not bode well for a bull market so until things settle down, I am favoring the bears over the bulls. And as a caveat, I do not always use default values for my indicators - so if you try to replicate, for example the ADX values and trends, you may not get them. At least something has to be proprietary for me. So I hope this has not been too much of a BS and Kabuki duo as a response.