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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sr K who wrote (176306)10/21/2011 6:29:15 PM
From: John Koligman  Respond to of 176387
 
Thanks for the article. When I look at Dell's results and cash generation this year I begin to wonder if selling a 'commodity' product is really that bad <ggg>. These guys are doing pretty well with what they have. If they simply keep generating cash at this rate and buying back stock at some point I would think the market would recognize what's going on and reward Dell.

Regards,
John



To: Sr K who wrote (176306)10/21/2011 7:21:06 PM
From: John Koligman2 Recommendations  Respond to of 176387
 
Another positive is that so far Mikey has been buying companies to fill holes in Dell's portfolio and not paying up huge. HPQ has been paying up huge, and this excerpt is telling... HPQ's Autonomy buy kinda reminds me of when Nokia coughed up 8 billion to buy NAVTEQ for it's mapping services....

John

  • Leo’s parting gift to HP was the acquisition of Autonomy — UK’s largest software maker. Autonomy had a sales of $949 million! The price HP paid was 10 times the sales. The value of something lies in the eyes of the beholder, but let's see if this was a good use of cash for HP. HP announced that it will be putting off its share repurchases because of this deal. If HP would have bought its shares with the $10 billion it is using to acquire Autonomy at the current depressed levels, and used the generated FCF to buy shares too, it would end up buying all outstanding shares in five to six years. This will create some serious returns for the shareholder! To put the overpayment in perspective, the cash represents 20% of the current market cap of $50 billion but the Autonomy’s sales represent only 0.7% ($929 million/$126 billion) of its revenue. If HP only used the $10 billion cash to buy back its stocks then this would have increased EPS and dividend by almost 15%. Autonomy will never be able to increase either EPS or dividend by that much. That is some serious overpayment.
  • This is not the first time HP has overpaid for a company. HP paid $2.3 billion for 3Par, after a bidding war that erupted for the company between HP and Dell ( DELL). Dell walked out of the deal and 3Par paid $92 million to Dell in termination fees. HP ended up paying a price that was 11 times its earning and 3 times its market cap!


Only time will tell if HP will be able to recover or not, but history does not favor companies with bad management and directionless employees. In a recent interview, Bill Ackman says the following about HP:

We have gotten over the last several months probably at least five or six calls from the largest shareholders of Hewlett-Packard begging us to take a stake in the company and be a proactive shareholder. I think that what we focus on is that we try to find a business that we can predict what it’s going to look like over a very long period of time. I have the fairly quaint notion that the value of anything is the present value of the cash you can take out of the business over its life.

The problem is that HP is in a number of businesses where I think it’s very difficult to predict what the business is going to look like five years from now, let alone over the many, many years of a discounted cash flow calculation you need to figure out what the business is worth. The problem you’ve had is that it looks cheap, but the future of the PC industry is a very difficult business to handicap. It’s incredibly competitive. I think the announcement of their intention to spin part of the business off perhaps has damaged the brand and it is a big, complicated mess. One of the things I learned a lot earlier in my career is to do a calculation which I call return on invested brain damage, which is before I make an investment which requires brain damage, or a lot of work and energy, I figure out how much money I can make. The higher the brain damage, the higher the profit has to be to justify it.

I was actually at HP yesterday for a meeting unrelated to their core business and it was just depressing walking around. The morale of the employees going from an outstanding company to one where they don’t understand the direction of the business.