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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (45084)	10/21/2011 1:54:38 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78667

With Dow up 200 today, a little risky for me, imo, to step in for stocks now. I'll try though with a few share buy of pawn shop EZPW. Hoping that its string of increasing stated bv will continue, that and that the decent roe will be sustained. Also reentered Regal Beloit now with a few share buy. Price:stated bv at 1.3 is low for RBC. Stated bv has increased 9 of past 10 years. Relatively low psr. Both companies have been profitable in each of the past ten years. finance.yahoo.com ========= Trimmed high-cost PBR shares and closed XOM. I am placing more money on small e&p companies and reducing positions on big integrated. Going for the more profit potential (stock price appreciation), although maybe the more risk and volatility. Otoh, integrateds could be risky too: Jim Chanos is short XOM, arguing for example that company can't replace its reserves adequately. Trimmed overweight position in auto retailer, PAG, finance.yahoo.com

To: Paul Senior who wrote (45084)	10/31/2011 1:23:36 PM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78667

SUPERVALU Inc. (SVU) Interesting to see that JP Morgan initiated coverage on Kroger, Whole Foods and Safeway with a "neutral" rating. Supervalu gets an overweight rating. From their press release: "...Supervalu Inc's turnaround strategies, including more discount stores and marketing autonomy for its stores, should help the third largest U.S. grocery-store chain, J.P. Morhan Securities said, initiating the stock with an "overweight" rating. Major supermarket chains are struggling with failing sales volumes as all but the top-earning shoppers remain very cautious about spending. Supervalu. which owns the Jewel-Osco, Albertsons and Save-A-Lot chains, has vowed to get its everyday pricing as low as larger peers Kroger Co. and Safeway..." <clip> "...Supervalu, which reported better than expected profit early this month, had said it would build fewer Save-A-Lot discount stores than planned because licensees were having difficulty obtaining loans..." ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Several insiders have been buying shares in August at prices between $6.87/share and $6.87/share.. Also, Mutual Fund FMR upped their holdings to over 6.3% with purchases last quarter. FMR filed on 8/15/11 that they purchased an additional 8,086,460 shares and now own 13,384,274 shares or 6.3% of SVU's outstanding shares. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I didn't realize that there were licensees involved in their Save-A-Lot stores but rather they were all company owned. This is the first time I have heard anything about troubled getting financing especially in the sector. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (45084)	12/23/2011 12:21:19 AM
From: E_K_S	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78667

SuperValu Inc. Common Stock (NYSE: SVU)- sold a few more higher priced shares RAM Energy Resources, Inc. (NasdaqGM: RAM) - Peeled off 10% of shares on today's news finance.yahoo.com Did some more house cleaning today selling a few more of my higher priced SVU shares at $8.05/share. My last Buy was 8/24/11 where I doubled up my position at $6.84/share. Still underwater on 15% of my shares but I believe the company has long term value. As long as they continue to generate FCF, pay down their debt and operate their very profitable logistics subsidiary, they should book adequate earnings and maintain their generous dividend. SYSCO has been eyeing a company to buy that will help them grow their business, and SVU's logistics (distribution & warehouse operations) division has been mentioned as a possible acquisition candidate. That is worth at least $3.50/share IMO. Will add to my core SVU position in 31 days if I can buy in the low $7.00/share range and no new negative news occurs. The news for RAM was quite positive with the stock up 83% on the day. Took a little off the table and want to scale down this position as it is now represent 8% of my E&P basket. I would like it to be a 5% position. The deal increases the share count from 80M to almost 280M but $270M of new capital is added to the common share equity base with another $275M in convertible notes. The total equity dilution is only around $0.25/share and the new capital should allow them to develop their oil fields in Oklahoma and Texas. If/when the convertible notes are converted another 110M shares will be added to the pot that will further dilute the shares base perhaps by another 25%. There was no mention as to how they would calculate the conversion amount but RAM really did not have many options for raising the necessary capital to develop these wells. The real kicker to the deal is the former CEO of Petrohawk Energy, Floyd Wilson, will become their new chief executive. He brings a lot of experience to the company, has a big bet that they will succeed ($550M) and the RAM shareholders have a seat on the bus. I plan to hold onto at least 50% of my shares to see how this ride turns out. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (45084)	1/11/2012 10:19:52 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78667

SUPERVALU Inc. (SVU) Supervalu loss widens, shares skidSupervaul 3rd quarter loss widens on restructuring costs, cautious consumer finance.yahoo.com From the article:"...the company lowered its yearly sales guidance to $36.1 billion from prior guidance of $36.5 billion. Analysts expect revenue of $36.44 billion, according to Fact Set. It reaffirmed adjusted profit guidance of $1.20 to $1.30 per share. Analysts expect $1.24 per share.... <clip> Excluding unusual costs, it earned 24 cents per share. That was a penny shy of analysts' expectations, according to a survey by FactSet...." ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Turnaround and restructuring continue. Not buying shares or selling the ones I hold. I do have a few more high priced shares I plan to sell sometime this year but will collect the dividend and watch the turnaround story. The company still has $1.25/share as their 2012 earnings target which makes the PE around 6, well in value range. Management still sees shrinking same store sales by as much as 2% before everything levels out. EKS