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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (6557)	10/27/2011 8:44:24 AM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

WOW, MR. GJ - What did you buy this summer? P :-)

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (6557)	10/27/2011 10:51:02 AM
From: rsie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

brinker comes thru? i will wait for a while to see?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (6557)	10/28/2011 7:39:45 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

<It appears that the Ecri will be getting this call wrong. The data at this point certainly doesn't say that. GDP consensus was 2.5 or 2.7 depending on the survey and came in at 2.5 and everyone pretty much agrees there was some give back from the weak Q2 that was knocked down by Japan and other temporary factors. Also that Q3 data obviously goes back as far as July and is not a leading indicator. The only fairly current data was jobless claims that remained over 400K as did the 4 week moving average. At this point if we're headed into recession I'd expect the data to start turning from mostly OK to mixed to getting more negative. We're currently in the mostly OK to mixed phase so we'll see how things unfold. While it's not a number I usually care about that much since it's more important what people say than do, the consumer confidence numbers were so horrendous that it makes me wonder if this might be the first canary to plop down in a mine leaching recessionary gas. The ECRI is obviously standing by their call as they went ahead and posted the video of that 4/2/2008 CNBC appearance by Acuthan along with a portfolio manager in which the talk was how it the economy looked like it dodged recession and the market and economy were moving up to which Lakshman noted they are on a recession call and expect things to turn down. It's notable that soon after that interview we fell into a recession and a bear and that happened well before Lehman went down. Based on the most recent data I'll lower my estimate that the ECRI is correct and we are headed into a new recession from 87% to 77%. One industry I do follow very closely is the semi and semi-equipment space and the outlooks have bee almost uniformly grim and reminiscent of where it was after Lehman went down with the CCs focused more on cost cutting measures and lack of demand than anything else. I haven't studied how predictive the sector is in terms of the broader economy but at least that sector is clearly in a recession now.