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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (45190)	10/27/2011 10:21:21 PM
From: J Mako	Respond to of 78470

Hi EKS, I'm lousy with macro economics. I read arguments from both sides, inflation vs deflation, and dunno who to believe. But if you put a gun to my head to pick one, I'd say inflation. I buy what Buffett wrote in the 70's that one of the best protections against inflation is to invest in companies with pricing power. Another thing I do is to invest in companies with significant foreign revenues. Look back in history, the after-shocks from a financial crisis and deleveraging could last for decades. I buy Vitaliy Katsenelson's thinking that we are getting into a prolong sideway market. I want to study bear markets. I'm going to read Russell's "Anatomy of the Bear" in the coming weeks. So, I'm getting more selective in my stock investment. I don't mind to keep cash to wait for the fat pitches. Real Estate makes a lot of sense. Oil at $40/bbl, that will be a no-brainer. But in general, Oil and Mineral companies, I said this before, I don't know how to value them. (I'll be delighted if someone can show me the light. :-) I'm constantly worried about China... Just my 2 cents.

To: E_K_S who wrote (45190)	10/28/2011 7:26:07 PM
From: Windgoof	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78470

>> What's your 10 year view on inflation? A high inflation rate would skew the blue line lower perhaps by one square. Look where it was during J. Carter period. I expect double digit inflation some time in this decade based on the amount of U.S. deficit spending and total cumulative U.S. debt. >> I don't remember where I read this. After WWII, the US debt as percent of GDP was as slightly higher than now. Govt kept the lending rates percent or two lower than inflation over extended period, and got rid of debt reasonably quickly without getting into double digit inflation. Sort of like now, CPI 2-4%, short term rates near zero. All the issues that are out there (high unemployment, europe, china, uprisings, etc) may keep inflation in check for some time. I like your strategy. Are you holding any NG companies long term? wg