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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (6584)	10/28/2011 8:07:16 PM
From: enilnos	1 Recommendation Respond to of 10065

If this is a stock market heading for a recession it is the best thing that ever happened to me. I have made more money this month than anytime in my lifetime as my entire portfolio has gone to the moon. God Bless ECRI for making this happen.....they are a godsend to the bulls. Here's wishing all posters great profits always.

To: marc ultra who wrote (6584)	10/28/2011 9:46:43 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Canary in the Coal Mine One industry I do follow very closely is the semi and semi-equipment space and the outlooks have bee almost uniformly grim and reminiscent of where it was after Lehman went down with the CCs focused more on cost cutting measures and lack of demand than anything else. I haven't studied how predictive the sector is in terms of the broader economy but at least that sector is clearly in a recession now. Not true. I concur that indications in the broader economy are first revealed in the semiconductor business. The semis are the building blocks of the economy and are the first to rebound or fall depending on economic conditions. That said, we are both aware of the Intc results: mercurynews.com Intc is not only a bell weather for the semiconductor market but for the overall pc market as well. (Let me add here I enjoy reading the convictions behind your posts) Further: (from another source) GDP, Gross Domestic Product The U.S. Gross Domestic Product was far from any great or massive growth. Regardless of what anyone says about GDP, this is the true barometer for whether or not we are in or entering into a recession. For the third quarter, that preliminary reading was +2.5% and even the price component via the PCE Price Index was +2.4%. Celebrating 2.5% growth might be a bit like taking a teenager to celebrate a birthday with any gift they want, in the dollar store. Still, this is not anywhere close to a recession. It is up from the readings of +1.3% GDP in the second quarter and versus +0.4% in the first quarter. The caveat: anything under 3% GDP growth will not really lend to a great recovery and it is certainly not going to act to help housing prices nor the constantly weak jobs market. Stocks October of 2011 is turning out to be a phenomenal month. This may be the best in a generation. Not only did the DJIA get back above 12,000 after the E.U. stabilization and Greek debt haircut but this is up from the low of just under 10,400 for better than a 16% gain from the low. This also happened during earnings season and we have witnessed the CBOE Volatility Index (The fear index) drop from a peak of above 45 down to almost 25, showing that the fear is drying up. And the best news is that Apple Inc. ( NASDAQ: AAPL) was only up about 5% so the market itself broadly outperformed Wall Street’s favorite darling. You cannot have an infrastructure recovery without Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) and its stock has risen a whopping 37% from the first day of October. The two DJIA banks of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) are both up just over 30% each from the first day of October. Even a bear market bounce would not be this big if a recession was imminent. The caveat: even a remedial chartist and a cocktail napkin chartist can recognize that stocks over the last three weeks have moved from very oversold to extremely overbought. MGJ