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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (6590)	10/29/2011 5:32:04 PM
From: marc ultra	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

<tablets like the iPad will replace TV remotes and magazines and books and act as the focal point for home entertainment systems.... they will only replace PCs for those who never really use the power of a PC... We're talking about what people actually use and buy. In terms of in a classroom a small number will have a laptop and these days it will now more often than not be a Macbook. But that's not what people are buying these days. The fact is people in the US aren't buying computers like they use to. I have an iMac with an intel i7 quad core chip in it I bought a couple of years ago and a very old PC that I likewise upgraded to a quad core processsor several years ago. So if I need to create a document or or other content I can do it on these but other than than that I'm basically using them as internet appliances. I have no need to upgrade or buy a new computer. That buying a new computer every couple of years thing to get the latest this or that is just dead in the US, it just doesn't happen anymore and that's why intel sales are coming mainly from China and Brazil and fast growing places like that who are actually buying new PCs. The only consumers who care about super duper power chips anymore are gamers and even for them what they have now is powerful enough that they don't need to upgrade to a new computer. In case you haven't noticed those quaint days when people bought a new PC every couple of years to get the latest power chips are about as relevant as the buggy whip these days. If I wake up in the morning and went to check something like this board or stocks I just reach over to my iPad and write or look at what I want while I'm lying in bed. If I'm on the move I have my iphone in my pocket. My brother's a professor who does a huge amount of writing and he carries his laptop with him everywhere but that's just not where US sales are for new devices. If we're talking tablets or smartphones we're not talking intel processors, we're usually talking about some very low power or space using chip based on a ARMH design. INTC is struggling to try to catch up as they know that is the future so they are looking to get some modified type of atom chip into mobile devices in the future. The other thing that needs to be understood is we're talking about tablets and smartphones as they are today but clearly what is happening is not that computers are getting smaller and more mobile anymore but tablet capabilities are being expanded and will make other computers more obsolete in terms of new demand. You can already use a stand with a keyboard attached for your iPad if you want and versions of Apples office suite is available for the iPad. It hasn't happened yet but we are moving toward a one or two device world and the PC is not one of them in terms of any growth in the US so getting back to the original point INTC no longer says much about the US consumer and thus the US economy. I think you should take notice of what has happened with Siri on the new iphone 4s. The killer app is voice recognition and it's incredibly good AI on top of a dragon voice recognition platform so let's think about what that means for the future. This isn't just some fun device where people are making appointments or getting cute answers to questions like what is the meaning of life but if you can simply talk and not use a keyboard then you can create much of that word document or whatnot on your mobile device and just wirelessly have it printed if need be and If you don't like virtual keyboards, fine, all you need to do is talk. The future is becoming clear and it's mobile devices like smartphones and tablets that will increasingly include the functions we're use to doing on PCs and until Intel becomes competitive with ARMH with mobile processors they will less and less relevance to the US consumer and economy. If a consumer who is not an old Luddite is going to spend their money on something new it will be the latest iPhone and maybe the latest iPad when it's released with this super cool voice recognition feature and great cameras for video chats or calls or pictures or video, and the last thing they'll think about is a new PC with intel inside which is the opposite of cool and they can just use whatever PC they already have.

To: Kirk © who wrote (6590)	10/29/2011 10:14:55 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Marc, Kirk Tablets like the iPad will replace TV remotes and magazines and books and act as the focal point for home entertainment systems.... they will only replace PCs for those who never really use the power of a PC... Kirk, you summed up what I could not express. It is my *observation, I have no specialized semiconductor knowledge like you and Marc have, that most people using the net books and tablets are using it more for email, and entertainment type purposes. There appears to be a great deal of competition in this space. Profit margins for these types of devices can only go down. The only knowledge I act on in the semiconductor space is that they are in every device within every household, within every newly manufactured car, spanning all economic sectors, and the economy cannot recover without the semiconductor sector doing well. <-Bottom line is this is all I need to know to make money in this sector.* Instead of searching for the best semiconductor companies in this space, although I directly own amat and intc, I purchase the semiconductor "indexes", etfs, if you will such as soxl and usd. MGJ