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To: ratan lal who wrote (24284)	11/20/1997 1:48:00 AM
From: Tim McCormick	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Taiwan not slowing down on the DRAM supply flood. techweb.cmp.com ,Tim

To: ratan lal who wrote (24284)	11/20/1997 2:19:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

(off topic) ratan, that chart is a beauty, huh? ;-) i have successfully traded nfli so tha i haven't gone broke playing it. i think my high purchase was $23 or so ;-) i'm a little below even on this stock right now - maybe 5-10%. one caveat, nfli is very volatile - nfliw 2-3 times more so. you MUST be nimble. very nimble. you must check every morning for their eps release. i've heard it is due out next week, however, i check daily now to be sure. second caveat, get the pricing you want. both are phased in and so you don't need to buy at the ask. this is especially important for nfliw. i bought 1k for $3 1/8 yesterday while the ask was $3 1/2. i'll explain if you don't know how phased in stocks work. third caveat, play this company like an option. i've followed this company since 2/96 and so i can consider it an investment. you haven't been involved with the whole story so you shouldn't commit too much. fourth caveat, a convicted felon, kevin trudeau, plays a prominent part in the marketing of this company's products. his conviction was 10 years ago and i've critically followed his actions for almost 2 years. although he is a tout (what marketing guy isn't?), he is lgit, imho. this is no scam. a real mlm company - though some would say that all mlms are scams. nonetheless, some are very successful. nfli has that chance, imho. nfli is an mlm company (i'm not involved in mlm and i'm not interested in it beyond investing in nfli). however, some legitimate mlms are very successful. i believe the management of nfli is one of the best marketers in the business. here's why i like nfli and nfliw (more volatile): 1. expectations are extremely low right now - easier to beat them. anything over $0.08 would be good news, imho. 2. the bad news of massive regulatory scrutiny is over - barring the extraordinary. 3. nfli has a lot of incentives running this q, including a cruise that was already expensed in a prior q. 4. two distributors and one stock broker i communicate with regularly were very dilligent in warning me that last q would have some problems well before they announced last q's results. they spent over $500k in extra postage and handling due to back ordered products for example. that's about $0.08 per share right there. these issues should be resolved. 5. insiders own a lot of stock - though the two principals also get outrageous paychecks to boot. although i'm not happy with their salary - or even close to happy - their salaries are priced into the current value of the stock. 6. not a peep about any cautions this q. nothing. nadda. nobody knows a thing. did the company change their mo? are they risking alienating their most loyal investors and the brokerage community? not to mention the distributors themselves? perhaps permanently? OR HAVE THE FUNDAMENTALS CHANGED SO THAT NO CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE RELEVENT? clearly, i believe the latter makes more sense. i wouldn't be overly surprised to see the former occur, though. i've ran inti quite a few irrational people in my life that do dumb, du dumb things. this would rank up on the list, though. 7. the company embarked on a cost cutting program last q. 8. the short position is very large relative to the daily volume. october had 188k shares short and an avg daily volume of something like 10k shares. we could see a small squeeze if the numbers are good. 9. nfli has over 100k distributors. they have new product offerings including long distance service. you can do the math and see that this alone could be very lucrative if done right. i expect the low to be $0.08 and the high to be $0.15. split the difference for my official estimate of $0.115. anything close to $0.15 will send the stock well over $10, imho. nfliw will touch $7. $0.115 and we should see $9 and $5.50, respectively. $0.08 and we'd probably stay the same. if it is less than $0.08 then i'm selling out immediately and i'll be pissed off ;-) i may keep 25% just in case... the bad news is that this business seems to be a hotbed of nepotism. i wonder sometimes if the idea is to pay the families and friends a lot of money or to increase the stock price. although this is an issue with me, i do believe that there are big incentives to build eps. over a million shares owned by insiders and powerful people close to the company. credibility issues with the street and investors. short sellers talking massive smack about the company. distributors that own tons of the stock - what an attitude improver good eps would be to those that own several thousand shares of this stock. they'd sell even more product.