Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (6713)	11/4/2011 6:38:44 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Respond to of 10065

marc, Is the impending reduction in government fiscal spending related to the savings from pulling out our troops from Iraq and Afghanistan another negative for avoiding recession, and, a headwind for the government "efforts" to reduce unemployment? P

To: marc ultra who wrote (6713)	11/4/2011 7:39:42 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

Hi Marc: Good post. Using the 2008-2009 bear market as an example, the ECRI bottoming pattern was as follows according to ECRI interviews I have watched. First, the recession call was around April, 2008. The tree began to shake and it was a matter of months before Lehman and the rest of the rotten fruit began to fall. So the focus on the rotting fruit is a good focus of this thread. Europe and MF Global come to mind. 1. Long leading indicators bottom first (November, 2008). 2. Weekly leading indicators bottom second (December, 2008). 3. Stock market bottoms third (March, 2009). ECRI acknowledgment of economic turn via media appearance: Early April, 2009. Justa

To: marc ultra who wrote (6713)	11/4/2011 10:06:09 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

the big issues of the time of Asian contagion, Russian default and then Long term Capital were all able to be taken care of or stabilized. Then<->Now Asian Contagion=Possible European Contagion Russian Default=Greek Default (or Italy, Spain, Portugal, France(?)) LTCM=MF Global In the end, these problems seem to be worked out somehow. Fed action is tapped out now except for some marginal moves around the edges. The Fed has a great deal of fire power including the purchase of corporate bonds which you never hear talked about if they so choose. Significant fiscal stimulus is mostly off the table now with the Tea Party influenced House Agreed but it is the stimulus from the Fed that matters most. I don't see this as a normal year 3 of a presidential cycle where you can try to bribe your way to reelection Every sitting President has the ability to and uses their ability to "bribe" their way to re-election. It is why it is so hard to defeat a sitting President. Also I just don't see a lasting viable solution to Europe yet... The ECB which has to be involved Therein lies the lasting solution. The ECB has to start acting more like the Federal Reserve but cannot because of all the countries involved and has to have the ability to start buying EuroZone bonds to help the continent out of its financial mess. For now I'm still expecting a recession and bear in the not too distant future but my conviction is somewhat less and based 3 straight upticks in the WLI and generally improving data I'll lower the probability to 65% now after having lowered it from 87% to 77% last week. 87%->77%->65% (note the trend)...In another month or so, you and I will have the same view on recession risk. MGJ