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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rsie who wrote (6728)	11/6/2011 10:57:25 PM
From: marc ultra	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

<I remember how glum everyone was back then (1998) too. I wasn't. There were issues but the core was sound and all we needed was a little help from the usual source which was the Fed. The core is really pretty rotten here and the Fed has little left and even if they did it wouldn't be that productive as it would probably push oil and other commodity prices up. I think where we're likely going here is a recession and bear market that will finally and painfully push these structural ills to a place where we can start a healthy rebuilding. A good ugly cyclical bear here could prove the last of the Secular bear that started in 2000 and we could go back to where long term buy and hold may work for a decade or two again. Yes, Europe can get solved and be something in hindsight that is overblown but we're left with that rotten core. But I'm not that optimistic about Europe because as I've said before the fundamental issue seems to come down to German money and commitment is what is needed to solve the problems but the German people are dead set against spending their taxpayer money that way and Germany is also holding the ECB back. We also really do have a new and different political landscape in the US which makes everything more difficult. With the Tea Party and Grover Norquist and moderates of both parties having disappeared it is really difficult to solve anything without going to the brink. If you look carefully it really seems the debt ceiling debate with all the talk about how not raising it would be fine and default might be better for the fiscal future and coming right up to the brink froze business plans and killed the already weak economy. There were businesses that depend on government purchasing that simply stopped ordering and put everything on hold and the rest became super cautious and they're looking at the uncertainty of the Super Duper Committee now which will probably come up with something weak that could cause some more downgrades of US debt.