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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (12991)	11/9/2011 3:03:45 AM
From: pcyhuang	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

John: I have no idea of what you are looking for. Sorry. pcyhuang

To: John Pitera who wrote (12991)	11/10/2011 1:53:58 AM
From: pcyhuang	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

John: This may be something close to what you are looking for. It has been a great earnings season. It’s not over yet, but of the 388 S&P 500 companies that have reported their Q3 results, earnings are up 22.9% on a 12.7% increase in revenues. The problem is that even as companies have provided lots of positive surprises, analysts have been cutting their earnings estimates for Q4 and all four quarters of 2012. That’s because they are turning increasingly cautious on the outlook for revenues and for the profit margin: (1) Over the past four weeks, their 2012 estimate for S&P 500 revenues dropped 1.3% from $1097.16 per share to $1082.46. They now expect revenues to increase 4.0% y/y in 2012, down from 2011’s estimated growth rate of 9.8%. (2) For 2012, the S&P 500’s profit margin--which we calculate by dividing analysts’ consensus expectations for operating earnings by expected revenues--slid from 10.2% nine weeks ago to a new low of 9.9% during the week of October 27. (3) Among the 10 sectors of the S&P 500, there have been significant declines in consensus 2012 earnings forecasts in recent weeks for Financials, Telecommunication Services, Energy, and Materials. The other sectors have edged down too, with the exception of Health Care and Utilities, which have been relatively stable. Why is there such a disconnect between the latest upbeat earnings results and analysts’ downbeat revisions for the coming quarters? They must be getting downward guidance from company managements. Yesterday’s FOMC statement notes that “there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.” The Fed isn’t alone in lowering expectations for economic growth next year. October’s surveys of purchasing managers showed recessionary readings for the major economies of Europe. Company managements must be seeing a worrisome deterioration in the prospects for European economies and telling analysts to curb their enthusiasm about Q4 and 2012. Source: Ed Yardini.com

To: John Pitera who wrote (12991)	11/10/2011 10:06:14 AM
From: Sergio H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi John. Here's a year by year breakdown: spreadsheets.google.com Have you seen Ed Yardeni's blog? blog.yardeni.com This site provides up to date charts on S&P 500 PE Ratio10 Year Treasury Rate S&P 500 Dividend Yield S&P 500 Earnings S&P 500 Price but only one at a time. multpl.com

To: John Pitera who wrote (12991)	11/10/2011 6:31:44 PM
From: Augustus Gloop	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

I am totally sorry for talking politics on your thread. Chalk it up to a couple rants gone bad

To: John Pitera who wrote (12991)	11/11/2011 4:34:00 AM
From: John Pitera	1 Recommendation Respond to of 33421

Paul, one additional thoughts on the accounting numbers which I sincerely thank you for posting. The numbers in accounting can and are significant different if you are on a cash or accrual basis of accounting what makes it all even more interesting is when you see Companies using different methods in different areas of the business, and in different countries etc. All completely legal. Bruce Sherman, who worked for the very wealthy Collier Family of Collier County down by Naples in Florida, ran Private Capital Management for a number of years and had good results a number of years (although he got caught with stocks like Bear Sterns and several other in the great financial Crash of 2008.) anyway, In reading his interview for this promo material for Private Capital Management I was impressed with his discussion of how he had worked for, I believe, Arthur Anderson, early in his career. And his job was to engage in due diligence of companies that the firm was preparing returns and public filings for. This was back in the first half of the 1970's. He commented that he was supposed to kick the tires of the accounting assumptions and look at changing in accounts receivable, accounts payable..... look for big changes in prepaid items, big changes in the number of days of A/C and A/Payable and to see if what the company was saying made sense and to actually go look to see if there was a large buildup or draw down in inventory etc. His comment was that he could see how companies would move the numbers and items around if they wanted to make the quarter look better or worse and that it was like watching a symphony at work in the way the numbers could be adjusted to attain management objectives. The more that anyone knows about accounting.... it can do nothing but help understanding companies as well as iindustries and even the Macro environment. Henry Volquardsen, who was a real....... I've put in the massive numbers of hours working on this stuff and really knew currencies, interest rate markets, derivatives etc. Used to comment that there was no derivative or SIV or other financial situation that could not be made understandable by Mapping out the Cash flows and the timing of Inflows and outflows. A very smart guy....... both of them. seekingalpha.com John