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To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (105524)11/11/2011 8:11:37 AM
From: CommanderCricketRespond to of 118717
 
Swan,

Thanks for posting that chart.

Michael



To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (105524)11/11/2011 8:49:08 AM
From: E_K_SRespond to of 118717
 
<and the oil stocks are not keeping pace>

The rise in Oil should allow many of the E&P companies to put their 2012 hedges on at prices in the $95/barrel price range. This is 19% higher than a lot of the company's estimates for crude typically estimated at $80.00/barrel.

Several of the E&P companies are working to decrease their "lifting" cost for Oil shutting down or selling those with high lifting costs and/or new pipelines come on line that reduces their overall transportation costs.

There is still almost $10.00/barrel cooked into the cost of the domestic shale oil for high cost transportation (rail/truck & barge). Pipe lines can reduce this cost to $2.00/barrel. Therefore, there is still a lot of much needed infrastructure that needs to be built which will bring production and delivery oil cost down even more.

To me, it's all positive events that should provide the oil stocks to move higher. It's just a matter of time especially if their are longer term investments made in resolving the transportation issues. Many of the MLP's are investing lots of dollars into expanding pipeline and processing capacity.

The other positive kicker is that all types of distillates are higher as the weather gets colder. Diesel is in short supply in Europe which is due to some refineries off line in Asia. Brent/WTI spread is shrinking from $27 to $17.

I guess we should not be too surprised that crude broke above $98.00/barrel this AM. We should move into the $100.00/barrel range soon.

EKS