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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (159733)11/14/2011 2:54:46 PM
From: Amark$p  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206107
 
Personally, I see no reason why NNN should sell all its WY assets. I continue to like these WY wells for the long term, and especially their proved, undeveloped land package.

That said, NNN has a 97% working interest in these WY FergusonR, WillowD, Hunt, and SheepP wells. A better strategy, IMO, would be to sell a 40% working interest in several of these producing wells. If the WY well decline curve is accurate, then these wells should average 20 BOPD for the next 28 years.

Would be interested if you can get an investor group to acquire a minority working interest in some of these wells from Nimin.

decline curve:
box.net



To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (159733)11/15/2011 1:29:05 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206107
 
I don't understand how you all evaluate NNN on flowing barrels.

Per Global Hunter in previous post: "We estimate that NiMin's proved producing assets, net of debt, are worth $1.40 per share, assuming $100K per flowing BOE.

If I use $100k per flowing barrel, and given that Nimin reported (11/11/11) "Record production of 1,154 barrels of oil equivalent ("Boe") per day in the third quarter", then by the way I look at it, I'll value the company on flowing barrels at $115.4M. If I use today's Yahoo numbers, NNN.to, at .74/sh, has a market cap of about $50M and an enterprise value about $83M. That would mean at $115.4M, NNN.to is worth about $1.22/sh. Okay, close enough to conclude that NNN.to is undervalued on $100k flowing barrel basis.

I just don't see $100k being the bogey. It seems to be much, much less than $100k in the buyouts and presentations I believe I've seen where flowing barrels are reported as an important factor (as opposed to npv values, or both). I'll have to look closer. The facts are the facts, and if you say you are selling properties (or wanting to sell properties) at $100k per flowing barrel, and if Global Hunter uses $100k, I guess it's now the industry number. I'll be more alert in my reading to confirm. Disconcerting to me, because it would mean that there are so many companies out there with oil/ngls production that the market undervalues, if flowing barrels is a significant criterion and if $100k is the number.