To: Road Walker who wrote (104299 ) 11/17/2011 1:13:44 AM From: tejek Respond to Green Shoots in the U.S. Economy By Gene Balas beginning to see a bit of good news on the employment front we can see that the American consumer is spending . The retail sales report demonstrated that with a gain of 0.5% for the headline, following a 1.1% gain the prior month. Purchases excluding autos increased 0.6% and sales minus autos, gasoline and building materials -- which are the figures used to calculate GDP -- climbed 0.6% after a 0.5% increase in the previous month. back-to-school promotions pulled spending forward Apple (AAPL) iPhone probably were behind the 3.7% jump in electronic sales. But overall, consumers are spending. In turn, retailers are placing more orders with wholesalers. The wholesale trade report issued earlier this month from the Census Bureau showed that sales by wholesalers increased by 0.5% from last month, while inventories fell by 0.1% to reach near-record-low levels, suggesting that wholesalers may need to place more orders with manufacturers. And manufacturers have increased production . Today's industrial production report from the Federal Reserve showed that manufacturing activity advanced 0.5%. The output of consumer goods increased 0.5% in October, with durable consumer goods production strengthening by 2.1%, primarily owing to a jump in the output of automotive products. The production indexes for home electronics and for appliances, furniture and carpeting also rose, while the output of miscellaneous goods fell slightly. It's not just consumer goods, either. The output of business equipment moved up 1.0% and was 10.2% above its year-earlier level. But some of this increase is due to the favorable tax treatment of accelerated depreciation that is reduced in 2012. Taken together, these data aren't pointing to any imminent recession, and instead are a bit constructive. On balance, while there is reason to be optimistic, there are also quite a few reasons to be very cautious.
