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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Linkster who wrote (2323)	11/20/1997 12:46:00 PM
From: KM	Respond to of 93625

Linkster: The only problem is, last time we were all together, I was at poolside! Now, it's freezing cold and my bikini is in hibernation <GGG>

To: Linkster who wrote (2323)	11/20/1997 12:47:00 PM
From: Michel Bera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Ibexx and all, Let us hope that momentum players will not interfere too much! Roller Coaster again <g>. <OT> I have done some homework on Unix vs Windows NT : is it true that Windows NT cannot deliver more than users in the 00s, compared to 000s for Unix ?? - I'd love your opinion. Referring to excellent article in redherring.com Let us enjoy RMBS rise ! MiB

To: Linkster who wrote (2323)	11/20/1997 6:29:00 PM
From: Ibexx	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 93625

Linkster and thread, The following is what R. Chaplinsky did in arriving at the new price target of $100. Please READ AT OWN RISK at do your own interpretations. 1. Dataquest estimates that the worldwide DRAM industry will grow to approximately $67 billion in the year of 2001. At that time, DRAM demand in PCs and workstations is expected to represent approximately 70% of the total DRAM market. Therefore, Rambus' DRAM total available market (TAM) is estimated to be approximtely $47 billion in the year 2001. 2. As Intel begins to ship its next-generation chipsets based on Direct Rambus technology in 1999, Rambus's penetration into the PC DRAM market should reach 10%. We conservatively estimate that this will pump into a 49% penetration rate in the year 2001 as these next-generation chipsets become more mainstream. Therefore, we project that the market for Rambus-based DRAMs within the PC industry will represent nearly $19 billion in the year 2001. 3. Rambus currently obtains 1% to 2% royalty rate for every RDRAM shipped. Conservaively, we estimate the Rambus's RDRAM royalty revenue in the year 2001 will be 1% of $19 billion, or approximately $190 million. 4. We estimate that Rambus additionally will receive 25% royalty from royalty payments on Rambus-based logic chip sales. Therefore, we (H&Q) estimate that Rambus will achieve $234 million in total royalty revenues from RDRAMs and logic cells in the year 2001. We believe this is conservative because we are not including RDRAM royalty revenue from applications outside the PC. 5. Assuming Rambus' annual expenses will more than double from our projected CY1998 $30 million level to $75 million in the year 2001, we estimate that Rambus' net earnings after tax in 2001 will be $96 million or $3.84 EPS. 6. Using a 40x forward P/E multiple on our CY2001 EPS projection, our price target for RMBS for the year 2000 becomes $155. If we assume a 20% discount rate over the prior 2 years, our CY1998 price target moves to $100, up from our earlier price target of $50. Regards, Ibexx