<<Firstly, that the regime’s debt sits at about 36 trillion yuan (US$5.68 trillion). This calculation is arrived at by adding up Chinese local government debt (between 16 trillion and 19.5 trillion yuan, or US$2.5 trillion and US$3 trillion), and the debt owed by state-owned enterprises (another 16 trillion, he said). But with interest of two trillion per year, he thinks things will unravel quickly. >>
... just money flow function per mobilization of idle savings, and for the greater good, and in any case is not paid to toyota for suvs in any serious numbers, and is not materially different from what had been happening since 1949, so am unsure what the fuss is all about.
<<Secondly, that the regime’s officially published inflation rate of 6.2 percent is fabricated. The real inflation rate is 16 percent, according to Lang. >>
... real inflation vs fake deflation, as long as we are talking paper money, just a math construct to keep people working diligently and saving hard. china invented paper, ink, printing press, paper money and money-xfer banking. boom and kaboom is okay, as long as real wages rising and flat screen tv gets larger.
<<Thirdly, that there is serious excess capacity in the economy, and that private consumption is only 30 percent of economic activity. Lang said that beginning this July, the Purchasing Managers Index, a measure of the manufacturing industry, plunged to a new low of 50.7. This is an indication, in his view, that China’s economy is in recession. >>
... surely there was a time when all of the oecd nations had been infrastructure-led and growing? china is just becoming the oecd of 21st century.
<<Fourthly, that the regime’s officially published GDP of 9 percent is also fabricated. According to Lang’s data, China’s GDP has decreased 10 percent. He said that the bloated figures come from the dramatic increase in infrastructure construction, including real estate development, railways, and highways each year (accounting for up to 70 percent of GDP in 2010). >>
... i cannot see negative growth as i am blinded by the positive increase in standard of living, so am unsure what lang is going on about.
<<Fifthly, that taxes are too high. Last year, the taxes on Chinese businesses (including direct and indirect taxes) were at 70 percent of earnings. The individual tax rate sits at 81.6 percent, Lang said. >>
... do not know any serious private biz in china paying more than 5% tax on true earnings. lang is obviously not a business man or macro economist of any note. as to the state enterprises, one can call what they distribute a tax, or a dividend. lang obviously is not clued in to how ownership works.
<<Once the “economic tsunami” starts, the regime will lose credibility and China will become the poorest country in the world, Lang said. >>
... that would be the economic tsunami starting now? or the one that would be 600 years from now?
i take joy from the likes of lang & gordon chang, knowing that wonderful days after fantastic nights their macro tracks wrong.
:0)
re <<They are all bankrupt; China looks better then 15 Trillion in debt; then again with over a billion that can riot...we need to all face facts; the entire leadership of the world is CORRUPT and we need change!>>
yes, in may ways, certainly, and in all ways unavoidable until and unless a cleansing revolution is tee-ed up everywhere, but revolutions typically give rise to a bunch of new looters. imo, china is done w/ revolutions for awhile even as elsewhere places are long over due.
i am counting on revolution in a lot of places, am excited by the possibilities, intend to engage via the markets, but generally aim to be a physical observer and a n occasional vacationer. revolutions are only fun to read about, or to have survived. they tend to produce copious number of bad-hair days and worse nights. |
