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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (18315)	11/21/2011 11:54:59 AM
From: Cal Gary	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24918

Me grabs some COS 19.70

To: Paul Senior who wrote (18315)	11/21/2011 3:57:46 PM
From: architect*	5 Recommendations Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 24918

Enterprise value / working capital shows which Colombian oil producers will have 2011 exit funding available to fully fund their 2012 Capital program from 2011 cash flow. I'd assume on these companies with a high percentage of working capital comapred to their enterprise value - is that 2012 cash flow will funds the 2013 program. (not needed for the 2012 program) High impact drilling in Q4 2011 - Q1 2012, with no debt and high cash (working capital) balances / EV are what interests me. Draft copy of my notes from my review of the Q3 2011 financial reports. Gran Tierra Energy - GTE / GTE.to Market cap MC - $1,600 MM Enterprise Value EV - $1,400 MM – 2011 E production 20k bopd oil Q3 2011 assets = $405 MM cash + receivables + oil inventory Q3 2011 liabilities = $ 174 MM Q4 Working capital = $231 MM or 17% of EV EV / 2012 E cash flow = 3.5 multiple Gran Tiera current production is 18.5 k bopd (6.67 mmbo/ year) x $75 / bbl OpEx netback = $500 million in OpEx cash flow. ??Gran Tierra has $250 million, $143 million in Q3 receivables, and market cap $1.75 billion and an enterprise value of $1.36 billion / $500 million in 2011 OpEx cash flow is a valuation multiple of EV / CF = 2.7 times Q4 high impact events Gran Tierra current production is 18.5 k bopd (6.67 mmbo/ year) x $75 / bbl OpEx netback = $500 million in OpEx cash flow. ??Gran Tierra has $250 million, $143 million in Q3 receivables, and market cap $1.75 billion and an enterprise value of $1.36 billion / $500 million in 2011 OpEx cash flow is a valuation multiple of EV / CF = 2.7 times Q4 High impact events BRAZIL ?? Exploration well ... 1 STAT-7-BAS...offshore~ TD 11/29 ?? Exploration well... .1-GTE-01-BA...onshore Reconcavo Basin drilling TD 11/12 ?? Exploration well ...1-GTE-02-BA ...Block REC-T-129 Recôncavo Basin TD - 11/19 ?? COLOMBIA ?? Exploration well ...The Rumiyaco-1. Putumayo Basin TD 11/22 ?? Well testing...........MOQUETA-6ST1.test results 11/15? Production start Moqueta oil field 10/1 Delineation well...Brillante SE-2 TD – 11/26?? Delineation well...Jilguero-2..Garibay Block ...Llanos Basin expected to TD 10/15 Production Start...Melero-1 Llanos basin – 12/15 Exploration well.... Rumiriqui-1 in the Llanos-22 block – TD 11/30??Rumiriqui-1 is in the block driectly east of the giant Cusiana Cupiaga 1 billion barrel oil field. Rumiriqui is a deep and expensive well targeting the Cusiana-Cupiage reservoirs. ? Prospect size 300 mmbo – 700 mbo Pacific Rubiales - PRE.to Market cap MC - $7,000 MM Enetrprise Value EV - $7,300 MM – 2011 E production 97k bopd oil Q3 2011 assets = $1283 MM cash + receivables + oil inventory Q3 2011 liabilities = $927 MM Q4 Working capital = $356 MM or 5% of EV EV / 2012 E cash flow 4.2 multiple Q4 high impact events C&C Energia CZE.to / MC - $500 MM EV - $425 MM P – 2011 E production 10.5k bopd oil Q3 2011 current assets = $136 MM cash + receivables + oil inventory Q3 2011 current liabilities = $66 MM Q4 Working capital = $70 MM or 17 % of EV EV / 2012 E cash flow 3 multiple CZE has $170 million in discretionary cash flow for 2011, and 2011 Capex is $120 million. CZE has $75 million in cash, say $90 million at 2011 exit. At the end of 2011 CZE will have $140 million in funding to fully fund their 2012 CapEx program. ??Using a $95 / bbl price deck, C&C Energia will generate $170 in cash in 2012. Currently CZE has an market cap of $520 million and an enterprise value of $445 million. ??CZE's 2011 - 2012 production is 10.5 k bopd (3.6 mmbo/ year) x $65 / bbl OpEx netback = $235 million in OpEx cash flow. ??CZE - Enterprise value of $445 / $235 million in 2011 OpEx cash flow is a valuation multiple of EV / CF = 2 times. Q4 high impact events Southern Putumayo exploration wells in the Andaquies block and the Coati block. CZE $0.59 / share funds flow from operations. C&C Energia gave flat growth projections thru 2012. C&C Energia needs an exloration success to move the dial, but CZE has a lower Enterprise value / cash flow multiple than GTE or PMG. ? Coati-1 prospect Temblon -1 and Temblon 1-X Petrodorado PDQ.v / MC $116 MM , EV $63 MM – 2011 E production 189 bopd oil Q2 2011 assets = $46 MM cash + receivables + oil inventory Q2 2011 liabilities + $6.5 MM Q3 Working capital $39.5 MM or 62% of EV EV / 2012 E cash flow 4.6 multiple Q4 high impact events Enviromental Impact Study (EIS) / Development plan submitted to Colombia for 15 drilling locations on Llanos block CPO5. The EIS submits 15 drilling locations with a average of 3 wells per location, so 45 wells total were submitted in the EIS. The exploration plan is to drill up to 5 wells into CPO5 until they make a discovery, then should they make a discovery probably shift to development and production drilling. Assumming 18% COS per well 1 of the five wells has a high chance of discovering oil. In 1985, Elf Aquitaine drilled Metica-1 well in the CPO-5 block, which tested 14.4 API oil and 20.8 API oil in the Los Cuervos and Barco formations. In addition, petrophysical analysis of well logs indicated hydrocarbons in the?Carbonera, Mirador, Une and other deeper Palaeozoic horizons. Petrominerale's oil fields, adjacent to block CPO5 Corcel and Candella produce from the Mirador formation. ??Petrodorado and JV partners have identified multiple plays and multiple oil prospects in the Tertiary formations?(Carbonera, Mirador, Los Cuervos, and Barco) and Cretacaeous formation (Guadalupe, Gacheta?and Une) formations (14 to 40 API). Petrominerales PMG.to MC $2417 MM, EV $2360 MM 2011 E production 40.8k bopd oil Q3 2011 assets = $487 MM cash + receivables + oil inventory Q3 2011 liabilities = $353 MM Q4 Working capital $ 134 MM = 6% of EV EV / 2012 E cash flow 3 multiple Q4 high impact events, Shona Energy SHO.v Fully diluted shares 305 MM MC $168 MM – EV $109 MM 2011E production 1.47k boe (gas) Q2 2011 assets = $32.5 MM cash + receivables + inventory Q2 2011 liabilities = $32.2 MM 3 working capital = $.3 mm = Nil % of EV EV / 2012 E cash flow 3 multiple Q4 high impact events, Colombia gas Esperanza gas field production start – 11-15 Esperanza gas field development and appraisal Palmer gas prospect spud exploration well TBD Peru oil Peru block 102 Boa exploration well drilling spud 9/29 Peru block 102 Boa exploration well test results Peru block 102 Anaconda explortion well spud TBD Parex Resources PXT MC $829 MM EV $789 MM - 2011 E production 11k bopd Q3 2011 assets = $135 MM cash + receivables +oil inventory Q3 2011 liabilities + $57 MM Q4 Working capital = $78 MM or 10% of EV EV / 2012 E cash flow 3 multiple Q4 high impact events, Cancol Energy CNE.to / CAAEF After land acquisition MC $450 MM – EV $370 MM Q2 2011 assets = $171 MM cash + receivables + oil inventory Q2 2011 liabilities = $79 MM Q EV / 2012 E cash flow 3 multiple Working capital $92 MM = 24% of EV Q4 high impact events,