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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kidl who wrote (18323)	11/21/2011 5:47:19 PM
From: architect*	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24920

I can add 2010 E reserves. To date in 2011 its hard to compare the reserves each company added from 2010e thru 2011. This late in the year, the amount of reserves added 2011 is the important, and missing reserves data for 2P NAV. The 2011 year end reserves report won't be published until Spring of 2012. These notes focus on working capital + the valuation of the 1P producing reserves. IMO, those are two conservative valuation metrics WC and 1P. Currently, as noted with Coastal Energy the market is discounting full 2P NAV. After high impact events, my next question is which companies have existing working capital to fully fund the 2012 Capital Program, and which ones can fund exploration plus added development capital should a major new discovery be made in late 2011 or early 2012. Assume an on-shore oil discovery in this time frame would add increase 2012 E revenue, above current assumptions. After the companies publish details of their 2012 Capital programs you can see which companies are focusing on growing investment capital, oil production revenue, and or focusing on growing 2P reserves. Both CZE and PXT will be drilling to find their second production project. The market cap of PXT and CZE are small enough EV that a new discovery in 2011 - 2012 should increase their share price considerably. Gran Tierra's 2012 capital program will probably make a sizeable investment development drilling and facilities needed to convert the Moqueta oil field 2P reserves into 1P producing reserves. If Petrodorado makes a discovery on CPO5, PDQ will no doubt exchange some of their 9 well exploration investment into development drilling needed prior to first production.