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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (45625)	11/22/2011 11:59:43 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78476

With crude around 100$/brl I'd say market believes that crude will drop a lot. (And I thought you'd believe that too with your position that China + Europe will collapse => crude at $60 or below?) And that's why tons of E&Ps are so cheap... Personally, I am looking to add to PMGLF and maybe GTE. My other two big positions are DRAGF and EGY. DRAGF was holding up somewhat. Integrateds and supermajors seem to be holding up a bit better. NXY is in the dumps, but then its results kind of suck.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (45625)	11/22/2011 12:23:51 PM
From: Keith J	Respond to of 78476

If you look at a 1 year chart of COSWF vs. SU or CNQ, they track each other fairly well. There has been a divergence the past few weeks. Could look at hedging via a short SU or CNQ position until the gap is covered. KJ

To: Spekulatius who wrote (45625)	11/22/2011 12:24:30 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78476

CANADIAN OIL SANDS(Other OTC: COSWF.PK ) According to the McDef ratio, COSWF has one of the lowest ratios in their list at 0.48 (1.0 is considered fairly valued). mcdep.com I still prefer the U.S domestic producers but still hold positions in ERF and PWE. However, my most recent transactions have been sells in these names rather than new buys. FWIW, I also like PWE for their Candian to US distribution pipeline (they recent divested themselves of their Oil & Gas exploration division). I have been buying PVX in the $7.00-$8.00 range. With the delay in the Keystone pipeline, speculation is the Canada will build their own pipeline to the West coast for transportation of the Oil Sand production. I think with a lack of a definite pipeline to export their production has made the stock sell off. Could be a buying opportunity but with many of the other domestic producers selling pretty low too (when viewed based on the Mc Def ratio), I would look at them first. My positions in PWE & ERF pay pretty good dividends but get hit with the Foreign Tax withholding. Therefore, I have been selling down these positions and working the money into the large U.S. integrators (XOM) and more of the smaller domestic shale producers. COSWF is definitely a value buy at current levels but I plan to focus on the U.S. producers (maybe we will get a U.S. energy policy that promotes U.S. production). EKS

To: Spekulatius who wrote (45625)	12/7/2011 10:07:27 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78476

CANADIAN OIL SANDS (Other OTC: COSWF.PK ) CANADIAN OIL SANDS LIMITED (COS.TO) Followed you in for a starter position in COSWF.pk. I plan to build positions in both SU and COS and peel shares off of XOM and CNX. This should help diversify the Oil holdings as I did not have any position in the Oil Sands. I am still not convinced that the Oil Sand business is the most efficient and environmentally friendly operation. However, they have tons of reserves and most important to me the oil is located in a safe and friendly place. EKS