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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (45630)	11/24/2011 7:13:47 PM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78462

Exxon Mobile and Suncor Are Strong in the Short Term and Prepared for the Long-Run The Bedford Report Provides Equity Research on Exxon Mobil & Suncor Energy finance.yahoo.com From the article:"...Oil and gas explorers have turned to more profitable business segments in recent quarters. With natural gas prices stagnating this year, explorers have focused on the more lucrative oil and liquids markets to keep profits strong. Natural gas prices could be due for a turnaround in the near future, however, as demand is expected to surge. <snip> Earlier this month Suncor Energy outlined plans to increase oil sands production 12% by next year, while boosting capital expenditures by about C$800 million. Approximately $3.6 billion -- or nearly half -- of the 2012 capital spend is expected to go toward growth projects...." The Bedford Reports require an email for signup. Here are the links to their reports: www.bedfordreport.com/XOM www.bedfordreport.com/SU ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I have been expecting NG to sometime revert back to its AVG mean price (much higher than current levels. However, with the huge supplies in the US shale regions, NG prices may stay depressed. Many of the E&P explorers are focusing on their OIL production. AXAS will develop 20% more OIL in 2012. So as more resources and capital are moving to Oil liquids, this may be the time to pick up NG but you might have to hold on for several years for it to pay off. Billionaire Steve Cohen's Top Stock Picks in includes Suncor Energy Inc. (SU). None of his 38 picks include anything I own. I must be missing something. seekingalpha.com I am still unclear as to what impact a rising US dollar will have on these Canadian resources. Eventually they should be cheaper as the U.S. dollar increases. Wednesday was one of the strongest days for the U.S. dollar in years (due to low bids on the German U.S. bond sales 5.5B of bonds only had 65% coverage). I am stay w/ U.S. domestic investments and those that generate U.S. dollars. My thinking is that eventually my strong U.S. dollars can buy some very oily Canadian resources. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (45630)	1/13/2012 9:03:14 PM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78462

Hi Paul - Penn West Petroleum Ltd (PWE) -NYSE I am going to hold off on my sale of PWE shares. I have other sell candidates that are over valued and probably a good time to lock in those profits. I stumbled on this article on PWE title "Will Penn West deliver in 2012?" dailyfinance.com From the article:"...However, production should see a hike in 2012. With access to major oil trends in the form of Vikings, Spearfish, Carbonates, and Cardium, Penn West is now among the top five light-oil producers in Canada. Management expects to fully scale up production in these key oil plays this year. With capital expenditure expected to move up to $1.7 billion, it translates into a 7%?9% increase in annual average production. Again, a proportional increase in cash flows could prompt management to increase dividends and the yield, which is currently 5.5%. Moreover, analysts are expecting the next twelve month P/E to be around 23 -- a substantial drop from 38, which was the average trailing P/E in 2011. In short, the company's fundamental game plan looks solid. I believe this company will offer investors an excellent opportunity to invest in a dividend stock..." --------------------------------------------------------------- A 7%-9% increase in production will increase cash flow and eventually result in a lower PE. As you pointed out in your post back in November, they have 670,000 acres under lease. Maybe they will use some of that extra cash to drill some new wells. This is one of the areas that have significant light oil which sells at a premium. I will hold my shares (a core position for me) to see how 2012 proceeds. It looks quite promising. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (45630)	5/15/2012 4:50:59 PM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78462

Penn West Petroleum Ltd. (PWE) - upped my position by 15% Added shares to my current holdings. Was looking to add some ERF but stock continues to sell off. Still trying to add more Oil shares as crude remains at a YTD low of $93.16 off -1.17% today. DNR is getting close to my buy zone as well as SU. Also many of the coal stock sold off as much as 6% so I have my eyes on CLF and CNX. MHR broke below $4.00 for a small time today. Will be adding to this one if it breaks below $3.50/share. NG stocks continued to sell off too. I was also looking to add some XCO shares but held off waiting for something in the low $6's. For now, the oily stocks seems like a better bargain so I will be looking at those plays. The new COP may be a candidate with their 5% dividend. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (45630)	11/1/2012 10:17:32 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78462

Penn West Petroleum Ltd. (PWE) - Sold some high priced shares of PWE Been trimming some of my positions in PWE & ERF selling some high priced shares and moving the proceeds into other mid-cap U.S. domestic shale and/or larger integrated oil plays. COP is one I want to add to but still waiting for $55.00/share or lower. Must stay on top of these smaller E&P companies in my basket, trimming out the losers. Trying to sell some shares in DBLE, EOX (Emerald Oil reverse split) and MPET to book losses before end of the year. It seems like several of these go much lower than higher on their cyclical runs, perhaps because of their cash burn. EKS