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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (45647)	11/23/2011 4:13:02 PM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78523

>>Upped my E&P stock MHR by 15%. Got in at the same price I paid in 10/2010. 8,500 BOPD is worth $4.25/share. Their Midstream Bus is free at this price. << Maybe the CEO get's another margin call and we have a chance to pick up some below 3$/share. Many of these guys never learn. I also think JEF is one to look for , with the CEO exposed so heavily, and agitating to keep the share price up, I would not be surprised if we were margined to the hilt too. That could be an opportunity to pick up some real cheap shares (<5$/share). Who knows?

To: E_K_S who wrote (45647)	11/23/2011 4:45:14 PM
From: Paul Senior	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78523

My MHR valuation based on 8500 bopd would be different and much lower. Lower than the current stock price. Couple things going on: Latest production figures I see are 8400boepd. Boepd includes nat gas equivalent barrels. I discount boepd quite a bit. Sometimes in determining if I want to buy an e&p company, I count the value of nat gas as zero. I view gas as being unprofitable for most e&p companies at current price. Jmo. I want oil, or ngl's - not gas. I will use '11 year-end projected production numbers. That'd be 10,000 boepd. I base my valuation off enterprise value. Looks to me as I look at your numbers, it seems to me you are using only shares outstanding (133M ) in your equation, not accounting for debt. -----> I am talking here only about valuation based on flowing barrels of production. Not allowing for value of land -- proven but not producing, probable assets, and possible assets. I once looked at trying to value the midstream business, but decided I didn't understand how. I'll rely on your opinion for this business. I continue to hold my shares.