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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (45655)	11/24/2011 3:08:56 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 79003

AXAS. I hold a decent size losing position. I like it because it's in diverse shale plays -- the possible prolific ones of Bakken and Eagle Ford, and also South Alberta Bakken, Niobrara, and Wolfberry. That is very diverse for any small e&p. It won't work as a buy if it's looked at on flowing barrels. It's the potential that I find attractive. Company talks about the importance of PV-10 (discounted estimated future production), but I don't see now where they give any current numbers for it. In my notes I show in an early 2011 presentation they give 1pnav as $2.57/sh I show they said 2pnav was $16.237/sh. I'm not surprised proved and probable is this high, given the shales they are in (although I don't know the specifics of the particular sections). Still, it's a risky stock, because we're talking about potentials which may or may not come to fruition or might not be profitable even if they do pull up the oil that might be there. Still, it's why I'm in the stock. I've mentioned it a couple of times on this thread. Fwiw, I'm adding to my oil positions, and looking for new ones. I'd not be a buyer of AXAS at this time. Others seem more attractive to me.

To: E_K_S who wrote (45655)	11/28/2011 12:55:19 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 79003

I'll take my lumps and take the tax losses on ATPG. Also selling some high-cost SSN shares. Still have an outsize position on this one. I'll give up on asset manager, Legg Mason (LM) and take a loss on this one. In assets under management it has more fixed income products (by dollars managed) vs. equity products, than I was aware of. Since I buy these asset managers based on aum, and because fixed income is so much less profitable than managing equity, this stock at current enterprise value, is not the value I had previously believed. I'm adding to DOLE as it falls. Packaging/container company Greif lowered its profit estimate for 2011. The stock's fallen back near lows, and I added a tad to the very few GEF shares I already have. It's a little disconcerting to me when a company like Greif ("Greif, Inc. engages in the manufacture and sale of industrial packaging products, and containerboard and corrugated products worldwide.") lowers expectations. It suggests that GEF revenues are going to be lower than expected, which implies that GEF's customers aren't demanding GEF containers to send product to customers. This is not a sign of robust growth in the economy. For a speculation, I'll take a few AAPL shares at current price. My first add to my few share position since 2006. Too bad for me I did not add shares in any of the subsequent years.

To: E_K_S who wrote (45655)	11/28/2011 1:21:10 PM
From: Steve Felix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 79003

What are your thoughts on AT here? Appears they will pay out 100%+ for a little while. But they definitely have plans: Long-term guidance unchanged – able to maintain dividend level into 2016 even under downside scenario with no acquisitions or organic growth – 2011 project distributions projected to be $80-90 million – higher distributions from existing projects – initial distributions from recent investments in Idaho Wind and Cadillac • 2011 payout ratio expected to be slightly higher than 2010 – increased project distributions, offset by dividends on common shares issued in October 2010 and ongoing conversions of debentures into common shares • 2012 payout ratio significantly improved – further increased project distributions – Selkirk will make last debt payment in mid-2012 irsolutions.snl.com