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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (45772)	12/2/2011 5:48:03 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78476

re SU , their operating costs are about the same than COS (~36Can$ for COS, a little more than 35Can$ for SU, based on eyeballing the chart in the presentation. If Operating costs are the same and they royalties are the same, than cash flow/brl are the same. I don't see how SU is the cost leader in oil sands, at least not relative to COS. their higher production growth is explainable because they reinvest allmost their cash while COS still pays a significant dividend.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (45772)	12/2/2011 9:31:15 PM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78476

From your list I own COP, XOM and CVX. My most recent buys were in COP about the same time Buffet decided to reduce his large position (four different purchases in 2009 around $45.00/share). It has been one of the best performers during that period for my large integrated oils. I do have some recent XOM buys in 2010 at $58.00/share. My XOM buys in 2009 were much higher @ $69.40/share. (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=COP&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=cvx%2Cxom ) ConocoPhillips plans $10bn share buy-back December 2, 2011 11:56 pm ft.com From the article:"...ConocoPhillips, the third-largest US oil group by market capitalisation, has announced a 15 per cent rise in planned capital spending and a $10bn share buy-back plan, as part of the radical restructuring that will split the company in two. The group plans $15.5bn of capital spending next year, of which about 90 per cent will be in the upstream oil and gas exploration and production business. Just 8 per cent will be in the downstream refining and marketing division, which is to be made a separate company, called Phillips 66...." ----------------------------------------------------------- I guess you have to weigh the amount of debt with building future reserves. COP has reduced their debt but maybe should take 50% of their share buy back money and build more future reserves. However, $15.5B in the E&P area should help. I wonder if they may be eyeing any of my small E&P companies? The one that is a bit disappointing is XOM. I may move part of my XOM gains into SU (or COS). I am still studying the value proposition in these Canadian Oil Sands. EKS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (45772)	12/3/2011 3:34:14 AM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78476

EKS, re: SU CNQ CVE HES MRO COP XOM CVX COS RDS. Fwiw, I have SU, a very few shares of CNQ as a set-and-ignore stock (purchased in '05), a few shares of CVE which I recently added to, HES about which I am looking to add more if stock will fall, and CVX to which I've been a consultant in the 1990's and in which I maintain a small position and am looking to add in low $90's. RDS, I gave up on when (as you have said) they suddenly announced decreased reserves. My preference is to go with Charlie Maxwell, who says avoid XOM, buy SU, &/or maybe also CVE.