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To: Keith Feral who wrote (6050)12/6/2011 8:15:05 PM
From: Keith Feral  Respond to of 13719
 
Going back through the presentation, BAC had a tier 1 capital ratio of 8.65% last quarter. Another 52 bp increase this quarter would put them at 9.17%, without considering any other gains for the quarter. That could add at least another 25 bp's, which would put them close to 9.5%. That's not too far off from JPM's 10.1% tier 1 capital they reported last quarter. Their tangible capital equity ratio should also be closing in on 7% this quarter, which is a pretty good proxy for Basel 3 standards which was the benchmark for the end of 2012. Nothing like getting there a year early. Blowing out of the rest of China Bank really accelerates the capital program for BAC this year.

It's interesting to see BAC's loan losses now lower in q3 2011 than they were in q3 2008. Next year, they should be lower than 2007 when loan losses were less than $3 billion per quarter. As long as we don't get another housing bubble between now and the end of next year, loan losses are going to keep heading south for the next couple of years.

It will be interesting to see how long the market does not pay attention to BAC. With $2 in earnings power for 2012 or 2013, a 25% dividend payout implies a 10% yield at the current price.