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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: carranza2 who wrote (84241)12/7/2011 6:08:05 PM
From: TobagoJack1 Recommendation  Respond to of 217567
 
all is taken into account, we wait for rapture. we wait for gold

just in in-tray

From: H
Sent: Thursday, December 8, 2011 2:39 AM
Subject: Re: A question about Euroland

It's not doable. You can deduct Greece from your total btw. - Greece is toast. It now costs $9.95 million to insure $10 m in Greek debt. That kind of speaks for itself. It's a complete wipeout.

Timmy likely proposed to inflate, and very likely (since his concerns seemed allayed) he was told that as soon as the new steps toward 'FU' are taken, there will be inflation.

What else? No-one wants to see this whole enchilada blow up while they're still in office, so every delaying tactic in the book will be tried.

On Wed, Dec 7, 2011 at 2:11 AM, R wrote:

OK, I did some quick and dirty calculations, using data that I found here:
en.wikipedia.org

I am assuming that the originally upon limitations are satisfactory to Merkel, then the short fall would be whatever the actual debt and the deficits minus 60% of GDP and 3% of the budget for each country. The data I have is for 2010.

For the PIIGS, the debt short fall is $1.617 trillion and the budget deficit is $218 billion.

So if we just isolate these 5 countries, all they need is $218 billion to kick the can down the road for now, then they need to try to work off that $1.617 trillion over time. Is that doable?

Looking at France, they are not is great shape. Their debt short fall is $556 billion and budget deficit shortfall is $102 billion. No wonder Sarkozy fought hard against fiscal discipline.

This is a tough one, I am sure glad Geithner is over there getting it all sorted out.

On Tue, Dec 6, 2011 at 6:11 AM, R wrote:

Has anyone seen the calculations?

If Merkel's push to have some type of ironclad formula, restricting the percent of deficit each government is allowed, how much would each country have to cut their budgets by in order to meet this requirement?

Assuming most would have to go with some type of austerity plan immediately, which most likely would involve cutting pensions, entitlements, raising income and VAT, there is no mathematical chance that each country and therefore Europe would not head into recession.

With fiscal stimulus ruled out, how are these countries going to grow their way back out?

So I am wondering where is Merkel going to set the bar at for this fiscal discipline? If the allowed deficit is too high, it is meaningless. If it is too low, would the hardship immediately push the PIIGS over the cliff?

Has anyone quantify this fiscal plan?



To: carranza2 who wrote (84241)12/8/2011 1:55:43 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217567
 
what do we think of japanese timing w/r to anything?

just in in-tray, good news !

i laugh whenever i read sentences structured so "... Holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds dropped to 2,356.716 tons yesterday from the all-time high of 2,358.206 tons on Dec. 6, according to Bloomberg data.

The Bank of Korea, which controls the world’s eighth-biggest foreign-exchange reserves, bought gold for the second time this year last month. South Korea purchased 15 tons of gold last month, boosting holdings to 54.4 tons ..."

given that there is a finite amount of gold in big hands, including the central banks and etf's, it would be more natural to say the the etf's sold some gold to the korean central, and more proper to say the korean central bought some gold from the etf's ... mathematically speaking.

businessweek.com

Japan’s Gold Exports Most Since ‘85 as Individuals Sell JewelryDecember 08, 2011, 1:31 AM EST

Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Gold shipments from Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, are at the highest level since at least 1985 as individuals who purchased jewelry more than 20 years ago are selling it amid record prices.
By Yasumasa Song and Ichiro Suzuki

Shipments of bullion in the 10 months ended October totaled 95.6 metric tons, according to Takahiro Morita, the Japan director of the World Gold Council, who cited Ministry of Finance customs data. The previous high was 95.5 tons in 2008.

Gold is set for an 11th year of gains as central banks join investors in purchasing bullion to diversify their assets. Japan’s largest bullion retailer, Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K., said it bought 40 percent more gold bars and jewelry from individuals in the nine-month period ending September. Gold investment jumped 33 percent to 468.1 tons in the third quarter from a year earlier as bar and coin demand in Europe more than doubled to the most since the fourth quarter of 2008, according to the London-based council, a producer-funded group.

“Japan’s gold exports will reach 100 tons this year,” Morita said in an interview yesterday.

Gold exports to Thailand tripled and those to Singapore doubled in the 10 months ended October from a year earlier, according to statistics released by Japan’s finance ministry.

“More and more people who bought gold and jewelry in the 1980’s and 1990’s are selling back what they purchased,” said Kotaro Horita, who trades precious metals at Mitsubishi Materials Corp. in Tokyo. Exports have been increasing to Southeast Asia and China in particular, Horita said.

Gold Demand

Purchases by central banks, which are adding to reserves for the first time in a generation, may reach 450 tons this year, Marcus Grubb, managing director of investment research at the council, said Nov. 25. Central banks and government institutions bought 142 tons last year, IMF data show.

“Japan is the only country that exports gold without being a major producer,” said Bruce Ikemizu, the manager of Standard Bank Plc.’s Tokyo branch. None of the 7.5 tons of the metal that’s extracted annually from the Hishikari Mine in Kagoshima, southern Japan is exported, according to Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., the country’s top nickel producer and the operator of the nation’s only operational gold mine.

Sumitomo Corp. spends “several billion yen a day” at peak times to purchase recyclable gold products for shipment to foreign smelters, Koichi Iwanaga, general manager of the commodity business department, said in an interview.

Gold prices reached a record $1,921.15 an ounce on Sept. 6 and have made exporting profitable even after shipping fees because of “the capacities and cost competitiveness of overseas smelters,” said Iwanaga.

China Buying

“Countries that are buying up gold are places where real interest rates are negative,” said Itsuo Toshima, an independent analyst who has researched global markets including gold for about 30 years and was formerly the Japan director of the World Gold Council.

In China, the biggest gold jewelry consumer, inflation is eroding the value of bank deposits, prompting investors to seek returns in bullion. Gold makes up 1.6 percent of China’s foreign-currency reserves, compared with the 11 percent world average, Nicholas Brooks of ETF Securities said Dec. 2.

“Central banks are continuing to buy gold exchange-traded funds after concerns arose about the creditworthiness of euro- zone nations,” Koichiro Kamei, managing director at independent research company Market Strategy Institute, said in an interview.

Holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds dropped to 2,356.716 tons yesterday from the all-time high of 2,358.206 tons on Dec. 6, according to Bloomberg data.

The Bank of Korea, which controls the world’s eighth- biggest foreign-exchange reserves, bought gold for the second time this year last month. South Korea purchased 15 tons of gold last month, boosting holdings to 54.4 tons, Lee Jung, head of the investment strategy team at the bank’s Reserve Management Group, said on Dec. 2.

--Translation by Taku Kato, with assistance from Theresa Barraclough in Tokyo. Editors: Jarrett Banks, Richard Dobson

To contact the reporters on this story: Yasumasa Song in Tokyo at ysong9@bloomberg.net; Ichiro Suzuki in Tokyo at isuzuki@bloomberg.net

To contact the translator on the story: Taku Kato in Tokyo at tkato6@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Richard Dobson at rdobson4@bloomberg.net



To: carranza2 who wrote (84241)12/8/2011 7:12:05 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 217567
 
just in in-tray

Subject: Re: Comments - Week of December 5

zerohedge.com

MNI Reports Coordinated Central Bank Intervention Sends Gold Lower Intraday
It is one thing for conspiracy websites to indicate that the Fed or the global central bank cartel are doing everything in their power to manipulate the price of gold lower. It is something different when the 'reputable', Deutsche Boerse owned Market News does just that.

  • MARKET SOURCES REPORT BIS, BOE & FEDERAL RESERVE WERE SELLING GOLD AFTER IT POPPED TO SESSION HIGH AT GMT 1335 -MNI NEWS via BLOOMBERG
  • So much for all those sworn testimony claims that the central bankers do not manipulate the price of gold.

    h/t GoldCore

    On 12/8/2011 1:01 PM, H wrote:The Greek stock ETF (GREK) has begun trading today. I will certainly watch it closely. While Greece's banks are bankrupt and the threat of a euro-zone exit and subsequent devaluation hangs over the country, the stock market is now down almost 90%, on a par with the collapse in 1929-1932. Not all of Greece is going out of business however, and valuations are lower than at most bear market bottoms over the past century. I agree it may be a trading idea for January.

    On Thu, Dec 8, 2011 at 4:24 AM, M wrote:
    Hello H - interesting point on Greek Stocks trading on a pe of 6 and with a new ETF coming out in the next week or so.

    I'm wondering if it might be good for a bounce trade.

    You'd have to think that every fund manager everywhere wants nothing to do with any Greek name being on its list of holdings going into year end. So they're selling now, but might buy sometime in January.

    Hmm... might stick my toe in the water the week before Christmas....

    M