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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Andrew H who wrote (11551)11/20/1997 7:46:00 PM
From: Arthur Radley  Respond to of 32384
 
Andy,
Thanks for the update on your conversation with S.Atkins. I guess we were expecting too much before the end of the year. Still appears that within the next 6 months there will be much to announce.
I have come to a hard realization in investing in biotechs:
"Buy on Rumor, Sell on News"
Just look at LGND/LLY ...LGND falls 25%
Just look at ZONA>/Schering/Plough...Stock craters 5 points yesterday
Just look at XOMA....Fantastic news/Nation TV and zilch out of the stock

I'm looking for a biotech that is on the verge of filing for bankruptcy so that I can invest in it and make some money(:>)to hell with this good news scenario.



To: Andrew H who wrote (11551)11/20/1997 9:36:00 PM
From: Flagrante Delictu  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 32384
 
Andy,>>I mentioned the 2 week deadline we had heard in regard to the drug to be selected from LLY & told her this came from the Opco conference. She was quite adamant that this timeline was VERY unrealistic & that they were still doing diligence on the drug, although she thought we would hear in less than the suggested 90 day period but perhaps not by year end.<< Goes to show that you can't always believe what you hear from conferences, especially if you weren't there yourself. Let's assume for a minute that this did come from the conference, were you trying to imply to her that therefore she was obligated to hew to your timeline? And so what, if it takes longer than 2 weeks for you to learn what compound they select? And, of course they are still doing due diligence on the compound. Since they can't select it until the LLE deal is done, and since that deal won't conclude until the ALRI deal is done, why shouldn't they continue to do due diligence on the compound? It's only logical. Those who have learned to read tea leaves will note from your post that the discussion you had was about the selection of the compound. Nothing was mentioned about the possibility of not selecting a compound, although that is provided for in the contract. We tea leaf readers can surmise that a compound will be selected & that its characteristics will resemble those which were reported out of the conference. It's too bad that you now have to deal with the uncertainty of whether the compound selected, even if already decided upon, may not be announced in the specific timeframe that you had believed was locked in stone. Maybe the report from the conference was irresponsible. Maybe the company has decided on a different news release date in line with what appear to be possible delays in other expected announcements.Maybe the company is considering an alternative compound. Or maybe it doesn't make much of a difference when the selected compound is announced. That is my bet, because in my opinion the timing of the announcement that the compound has been selected is nowhere as important as the fact that the compond was actually selected. My condolences also to those of you who are unhappy that interviews that LGND may have given to members of the popular press have not been published in the timeframe most convenient to you. I certainly hope our threadsters are not buying options whose expiration dates coincide with time frames mentioned on the thread. Bernie.