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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (54851)	12/10/2011 11:25:16 AM
From: Sam	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95415

Bob, I think what happened yesterday is mostly a function of the EU looking like it is at least trying hard to avoid a breakup and meltdown. Stocks are priced for a recession. Or, if not for an outright recession, at least for very, very slow growth. And companies are staffed for it too, which is why unemployment remains so high, profits remain on the whole pretty good (with notable exceptions in the financial and housing-related sectors) and companies keep socking away cash on their balance sheet. In their call on Thursday, TXN said that they believe that we are scraping along the bottom and that they are under-shipping real demand: And I think its tied somewhat back to the question Uche asked me if I haven't gone through specifically, which is do we still believe that we're in this bottoming process in the downturn, and the answer is we do. What we look at, first of all, the inventory levels of TI just as customers and distributors are now very low, and as I said it before, we believe we're undershipping demand. So just to reiterate, at some point, customers will have to stop reducing inventory. And when that happens, our revenue will grow as our shipments increase to match the customers' production level even if there's no growth in end demand or replenishment of inventory. And for anybody that's watched this industry cycle over the course of time, you fully understand that once you start to get in that process and customers regain confidence in their own outlook, the next phase is they will typically then layer in addition inventory as well. The customers historically have not forecast these snapback from their demand, and instead, they rely on short product lead times to support their increased demand. We think we are very well positioned both with our inventory, as well as our short lead times to support that inevitable increase in demand. And the other thing that I would point to, which I had mentioned earlier, is just the stability you might say in terms of the orders took a step down in the month of July, but they generally been flattish since that time, which is to us indicative of a bottoming process as well. If we can add to the current economic mix confidence that the financial sector won't implode again and that the EU and the US will adopt sane economic policies and regulations, then we could well see the market explode upward. And even see employment numbers rise much more than they have, finally making a dent in all those numbers of unemployed people. Of course, those are big "if"s.

To: robert b furman who wrote (54851)	12/11/2011 12:49:04 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95415

Bob, Sam has already responded to your observation and question with a great answer. Message 27816529 I am just sitting on the sidelines watching the market go up and down on a daily basis depending on the daily news from Europe. On top of the daily Europe problems(and possible solutions) ride a myriad of other issues that demand daily market attention. Trying to find a trend of any length has been out of the question lately. We have short term trends of high volatility which is easily seen by looking at the 13 week rolling quarter numbers. In the latest look at the 13 week period, the week of 9/16 was really strong to the upside to start the process, then 2 weeks of downside, followed by the strong 4 weeks of Oct to the upside. Then Nov took most of that gain away, now the first 2 weeks of Dec have made a strong move to the upside. Now compare the week of 9/16 to the total for the 13 week period. Almost no change with the exception of the DOW and SPX being slightly higher. The next 3 weeks to close out the year will be interesting to watch. A lot of hope to go to the upside, but a lot of disasters can also occur. Make sure you set your alarm early before the market opens to find out the daily "soap opera" coming out of Europe.:-) Just to put a couple of numbers to the SOX over this period, during the week of 9/16 the SOX closed at 381.91, and this past Friday closed at 375.67.