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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (12373)	12/12/2011 2:26:14 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 16955

FSLR has been weaker than my other 3. FSLR went below the October low in November, while TSL, YGE, and JKS didn't. PE = 44/5.32 = 8, based on Citi's 2012 EPS guess. That's an excellent valuation, if FSLR is a survivor in this industry. Unfortunately, the LT trend is against them. The Chinese c-Si producers have been able to reduce non-silicon costs faster than FSLR is reducing their costs. That, combined with the spectacular decline in poly costs, gives c-Si the advantage over all the competing technologies. FSLR's management changes are also worrying. Modules going into their Systems, sell for twice the price. FSLR's survival is dependent on their Systems business. The Chinese government is slow-walking the permit process; Europe is in financial turmoil (making loans difficult); so that leaves the U.S. I'm not ready to give up on FSLR, but I am less sure they will be a survivor, than I was 6 months ago.