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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron Dior who wrote (20160)	12/14/2011 11:03:57 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24758

It just seems to me like this would be "Economic" suicide for them. You forget your basic 1979 history. Most countries don't back down for fear of death tolls but when it comes to munee they typically think twice. You forget your basic mid '80s history about the Iraq - Iran war. Im curious to know what you think DM does if this is closed down? Although he could overrule it the US carrier force would attempt to open it. However, that would mean confrontation on a level that would preclude safe passage through the straits, insurance rates would skyrocket, and little oil would get through. What will the world do since it will effect so much oil flow? All debt loaded nations like those of EU would financially collapse. Iran could easily destroy the world, is it were, without touching Israel. Lastly, to what benefit would it be to Iran in doing so? It would satisfy the prediction of the arising f the 12th Emam and the associated destruction of the Greeeaaat Sataaaan. Correct me if I'm wrong but it seems to me that Iran is somewhat like the "Fed" used to be under Greenspan's rule. I can't see it. FED is trying to do good. Iran is trying to do bad. Iran's leaders have a concept of their country where destruction of the West propels them into ME dominance with control of Saudi Arabia. Everyone was under the impression* Fed could move the markets so whenever they spoke the markets moved.* FED's QEx brought about the opposite of its intent. It failed because Keynesianism only works somewhat when there's lending confidence. You can't push on a string. Keynesianism's most important tenant is to refute liquidity trap with money pumping. Enough money will refute fear. Friedman believed this view. After all, his main tome is based on it. After the early '90s Friedman somewhat gave up this view when FED put on a song and dance of practicing money supply targeting. Such targeting is superfluous when the level of interest rate is 12%. Friedman thought that money targeting would work regardless. In some sense it did work but not along the presumptions of its main author. I tried to point this out but if you're merely some money manager, you don't have the necessary clout for any of the pundits to believe you whatever obvious truth you're expounding. Since investors have figured out Feds power is limited they've recently become a non-factor. You wouldn't believe that if your only source was the media. You got that from me. Also, the big boyz don't believe it either. Remarkably, with the academics they still believe FED is keeping rates low as though they would rise if FED didn't do something to keep them low. It's a mutual stupidity society. I think Iran as with many ME countries are in the same boat. They have this illusion of being able to control much of the worlds economy but if they show all of their cards they might get "figured out" so they show their teeth every few months to keep the illusion alive. If I have made the elementary observations mentioned above, you can believe the various nations have done so also. Iran won't launch preemptive strike. They're preparing for a possible attack whose objective would be to destroy their nuclear weapons development. I guess the bottom line is, I don't think they will ever push it over the edge UNLESS they feel like they have no choice. Paranoid defense is more likely and that means they won't preemptively close the straits.