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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t4texas who wrote (161110)	12/14/2011 4:40:41 PM
From: Sweet Ol	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206334

As I understand it, at this time there is no way for anyone to leave the Eurozone (like the California Hotel). It will take a constitutional amendment to allow it to happen legally - and that will take a long time. So, the likely thing is that Greece will just default on their bonds. That will probably get them kicked out since it will be a huge loss to the German and French banks who hold a lot of Greek bonds. When they default they will be unable to sell any more bonds, so they will have to live within their income (what a concept<ggg>) which will be a huge burden for the people. It will be very difficult to finance imports and exports. Their banks will be bankrupt, so it will be a major problem. If (when) they go back on the Drachma they will have major problems paying debts denominated in Euros so companies and individuals will also go bankrupt. Not a pretty picture. As soon as Greece defaults, Ireland will probably do the same thing. They have a more functional economy and will probably recover sooner. They can go to the Pound Sterling since most of their trade is with Britain. Greek and Irish defaults will probably bankrupt most of the European banks so they will have to be bailed out by their governments. This is a bigger problem for them than for the USA banks because the Euro banks are the principle source of credit for their governments. What a mess! If that is not enough problems, think of the political issues. Any politician who lets this stuff happen to their country is toast. And we all know that losing an election is the worst of all possible scenarios in the mind of a politician. So, they will just keep kicking the can down the road until the world economies improve so much that the debt problems can be handled the old fashioned way - by massive inflation, or else default occurs when they can't roll over their debt. Watching all this develop is more exiting than any reality TV!!! Blessings, JRH

To: t4texas who wrote (161110)	12/14/2011 4:43:57 PM
From: Bearcatbob	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206334

There are plenty of examples. Argentina, Iceland, Mexico - how did all work out there? Is the problem simply that the the loaning countries cannot afford the write offs that their domestic banks would have to take? My sense of last weeks agreement was that the nations would support their banks while the individual nations would be responsible for shaping up their financial acts. Those that did not shape up - would simply pay the price. Those that did shape up would be assisted through the adjustment period. Without assistance the rates on their refi's would simply be brutal - as CNBC talked about today re Italy. Perhaps the lesson is that short term debt is a super killer. Bob