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To: carranza2 who wrote (84613)12/15/2011 12:54:31 AM
From: Brian Sullivan  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 218308
 
China up the ante in the trade war.

China Imposes New Tariffs on U.S. Vehicles


New duties will mainly affect General Motors and Chrysler, and BMW and Daimler of Germany.

By KEITH BRADSHER Published: December 14, 2011

GUANGZHOU, China — The Chinese government increased trade tensions with the Obama administration Wednesday evening by unexpectedly imposing antidumping and antisubsidy tariffs on imports of sport utility vehicles and midsize and large cars from the United States.

The new tariffs, totaling up to nearly 22 percent of the import prices, will probably have a mainly symbolic function, rather than reducing the already skimpy sales of such vehicles in China. Other tariffs and taxes already in place have limited sales of American imports by helping raise their retail prices by about three times what the same cars and S.U.V.’s sell for in the United States.

Still, firing a trade volley at American exports of automobiles, one of the most politically sensitive industries in international trade, can only escalate trade hostilities between China and the United States.

China’s move drew immediate criticism from the Obama administration.

“We are very disappointed in this action by China,” said Carol Guthrie, a spokeswoman for the Office of the United States Trade Representative. “We will be discussing this latest action with both our stakeholders and Congress to determine the best course going forward.”

The Commerce Ministry of China, which has conducted a two-year trade investigation of the American imports, gave no explanation for its decision to impose the duties. Ministry officials could not be reached for elaboration Wednesday evening.

The duties would mainly affect General Motors, which exports Cadillac S.U.V.’s and cars to China; Chrysler, which exports Jeeps; the BMW Group of Germany, which exports BMW S.U.V.’s from South Carolina; and Daimler of Germany, which exports Mercedes S.U.V.’s from a factory in Alabama.

Because of the high Chinese tariffs and taxes already in place, the vehicles are sold only in the thousands or even hundreds in China, and only to the most affluent. (A Jeep Grand Cherokee that begins at $27,490 at dealerships in the United States costs $85,000 or more in China.)

The White House announced last week that it would ask the World Trade Organization next Monday to open an inquiry into Chinese restrictions on imports of American broiler chickens.

More significantly, Chinese government agencies and companies have been furious about a current American investigation into whether Chinese solar panels exported to the United States might have received illegal subsidies or been dumped in the American market at prices below the cost of manufacturing them.

American officials have previously examined the methodology of China’s two-year-old antidumping and antisubsidy investigation of American-made automobiles and have found “significant problems,” said Ms. Guthrie, the United States trade spokeswoman.

One challenge for China, which recently celebrated its 10th anniversary as a member of the World Trade Organization, is whether Wednesday’s action will be allowed under W.T.O. rules.

The trade organization places many limits on a member nation’s ability to impose antidumping and antisubsidy measures, particularly on goods from countries that the W.T.O. has declared as having market economies, like the United States.

“Dumping” might be hard to demonstrate, given that the prices of the American vehicles — even before China’s tariff and tax markups — tend to be higher than in the United States.

The Chinese accusation of subsidies may be linked to previous comments by Chinese officials questioning whether the Obama administration provided too much federal assistance to G.M. and Chrysler two years ago during the global financial crisis.

China started the automotive trade case two days after President Obama imposed steep tariffs on surging imports of Chinese tires in September 2009. After an inquiry, the W.T.O. ruled this autumn that the American tariffs on tire imports had complied with international trade rules.

The new tariffs China imposed Wednesday will be antidumping duties of 8.9 percent for G.M. vehicles, 8.8 percent for Chrysler, 2.7 percent for Daimler and 2 percent for BMW.

The ministry separately imposed additional antisubsidy duties of 12.9 percent for G.M. and 6.2 percent for Chrysler.

The ministry’s statement said that all of the new duties would be calculated on vehicle prices that include China’s existing 25 percent import tariff for all family vehicles. So buyers will effectively pay the new antidumping and antisubsidy taxes on other Chinese taxes in addition to paying the new taxes on the value of the car.

China’s import tariff is much higher than those of other big auto manufacturing nations. The United States, for example, assesses a tariff of 2.5 percent on imported cars, minivans and S.U.V.’s.

The new Chinese duties will apply to sport utility vehicles and cars with engines of 2.5 liters or greater that are imported from the United States. The duties will be in place for two years, through Dec. 14, 2013, according to the ministry’s announcement.

BMW said that it anticipated little effect from the duties, Daimler said that it was studying them, and Chrysler had no immediate comment.

General Motors said in a statement that it was “working with relevant authorities to understand the impact of the Chinese government’s decision.” G.M. added that it would “seek a solution consistent with a constructive global trade environment, which we believe is important to both China and the U.S.”

G.M. is a leading producer of automobiles in China, through a series of joint ventures with Chinese partners. The company’s statement said that imports from the United States represented “less than half of 1 percent of its domestic production in China.”

By contrast, Chrysler’s sales in China are solely imports. The company was not allocated any factories in China when Daimler dissolved its merger with Chrysler in 2007.

As a result, Chrysler’s sales in China are tiny — only 13,686 Jeeps, 10,970 Dodges and 284 Chryslers in the first 10 months of this year, according to LMC Automotive, a British consulting firm.

Bill Russo, a former Chrysler executive who oversaw the company’s operations in China until 2008 and is now an industry consultant in Beijing, said in a telephone interview Wednesday evening that while some Chinese trade actions might benefit Chinese industries, it was unlikely that the latest move was done to help Chinese automakers.

Imported S.U.V.’s and cars cost so much more than Chinese models that “people are not shopping these on price,” Mr. Russo said. “No local company makes a product even close.”

Imported models already cost much more in China compared with their home markets because of steep Chinese tariffs, value-added taxes and a system of sales taxes that range from 1 percent on fuel-sipping subcompacts to 40 percent on large sport utility vehicles and sports cars.

The Chinese Commerce Ministry’s announcement on Wednesday was the latest in a series of zigzags on trade policy this autumn, as Chinese officials have struggled over how confrontational a stance to take now that the Obama administration has begun to challenge Chinese trade policies more aggressively.

Just three days ago, President Hu Jintao gave a conciliatory speech to observe China’s W.T.O. anniversary. Mr. Hu said that China would further open up its international trade.

But last week, the Commerce Ministry strongly criticized a recent preliminary decision by the United States International Trade Commission, which concluded that imports of Chinese solar panels had hurt American solar panel manufacturers. That decision moves the United States one step closer to imposing antidumping and antisubsidy duties on Chinese solar panels early next year.



To: carranza2 who wrote (84613)12/15/2011 3:52:46 AM
From: TobagoJack3 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 218308
 
converted all brokerage accounts from margin to cash a/c

while i now can neither short nor sell naked calls, and must match all shorted puts with usd cash in a/c to cover
the brokers must no longer loan out my shares for others to short, and must segregate all my cash and holdings apart from their own

as more folks do what i just did, the mother-of-all-short-squeeze would be full-on

mf global may have triggered TwoAPuc (the worst of all possible unintended consequences)

(i) as and when and should the judge of competence in the hsbc-vs-mf-global-trustee case rule against the ithaca man re his warehouse receipts for serial-numbered gold and silver bars ... oh boyz, what a beautiful day that would be as all reach for their warehoused metals, or

(ii) alternatively, should the judge rule in favor of the ithaca man, all folks who supposedly hold collateral in the form of ledger a/c bars and bricks may have to take hold of such collateral and store in their own warehouse ... oh girlz, what a wonderful night that would be.

either way, one bar of gold cannot and must not answer to two masters, and so

either way, somethings have changed, because the trust has been disturbed and faith shaken, and all we need to do is stir the pot :0)

given that the current global monetary crisis and debt debacle can ONLY be definitively 'resolved' through massive dilution / devaluation (along with the usual tyrannical taxing and draconian belt-tightening), such cannot happen without execution of capital controls, then that should mean ... well, let us wait and see, watch and brief

in the mean time am wondering if team usa just handed tribe iran dominion over all of persian golf, even as it is delivering gasoline at 400/galloon to effective stranded troops in the mission-accomplished mountains of afghanistan, and if so ... hmnnnn



To: carranza2 who wrote (84613)12/17/2011 5:09:52 PM
From: TobagoJack1 Recommendation  Respond to of 218308
 
have received confirmation that my margin accounts are now converted to cash accounts, and my paper assets can no longer be legally loaned out, i.e. no one can use my gld to short gld.

the movement to cash a/c may pick up more velocity with higher second and third and forth order derivatives than was true of the OWS weekend outing.

if not, mr market shall destroy still more margin accounts because re-hypothecating mf global cannot be the only wastrel cockroach out there.

if and when and as so, the effect may not be pleasant for the mkt participants, bull or bear.

it would be as if the situation of a bunch playing collaboratively the lego toys, and all of a sudden half the kids were called home for dinner, in a hurry, with whatever lego components at hand.

if as we may believe that the paper gold mkt trades at 10-50x the volume of the physical mkt, and all of a sudden the paper shorting game is halved (but paper long game would also be halved) - what happens? i am not smart enough to know for the short term of to n fro, zig n zag, unless such "i am going home" also entails significant physical possession off-take in which case a short squeeze would be.

in the longer term, the mkt 'supply' is less, even as physical demand keeps on trajectory until and unless the mkt sees the light at end of the darkest interregnum

let us watch and brief to see whether such 'i am going home' picks up speed



To: carranza2 who wrote (84613)12/19/2011 7:25:33 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (6) | Respond to of 218308
 
Just read safehaven.com
Gold Market UpdateOriginally published December 18th, 2011.

Last week saw a severe breakdown in the Precious Metals sector that is now viewed as marking the start of a bearmarket, and that means the onset of a deflationary episode that is likely to prove more serious than that we witnessed in 2008, because it will involve countries going bust rather than "just" banks and large corporations as was the case in 2008.

At first glance gold's 3-year chart still doesn't look too bad, with its price in the vicinity of a still rising 200-day moving average, but last week it broke below this average for the first time since 2008, which is in itself a serious warning, and ominous devolopments on the charts for silver and the Precious Metals stocks indices, strongly suggest that gold is in the process of completing an important top area, which looks like it is taking the form of a bearish Descending Triangle. Momentum as shown by the MACD indicator, is now firmly in negative territory, and failure of the important support level at the lower boundary of the suspected Descending Triangle will lead to a severe decline as shown.



The Market Vectors Gold Miners Index (GDX) broke down last week from the Diamond formation that we had identified a week or two ago, confirming that the pattern that has developed this year is a large top area. This being so it is clear that both gold and silver are in the late stages of large top areas from which they are both soon likely to break down, and also that a major deflationary episode is in the works that will see the still elevated broad stockmarket suffer a severe decline, probably similar to that which occurred in 2008. The breakdown in the GDX was a very serious bearish development, so any rallies arising from the current oversold condition are likely to meet heavy selling and are thus unlikely to get far. Whatever rallies now occur should be aggressively sold - the real downside fireworks are likely to occur in the New Year.



On the 5-month chart for the GDX index we can clearly see the fine example of a rare "Fish Head" Triangle, which is what enabled us to call an imminent big move in the sector last weekend, although at the time we did not know which way it would break. To enable those readers less endowed with imagination to spot the Fish Head pattern, an eye and mouth have been added to the chart. We placed a general stop beneath this Triangle which took us out of most positions, and a straddle was recommended for speculators which has already garnered big profits.



At the same time that the PM sector started breaking down last week, the dollar broke out above an important resistance level, negating a potential Double Top, as we can see on its 6-month chart below, although the breakout is not as yet by a decisive margin. This has opened up the possibility of another strong upleg by the dollar, which is of course what we would expect to see if deflation strikes.



How far could the dollar rally? The 5-year chart gives us a good idea - it could run swiftly to the 88 - 89 area during a major deflationary episode.



A big dollar rally of course implies further euro weakness. As we can see on the 5-year chart for the euro, it has just broken down from a Head-and-Shoulders top and could drop back swifly to the vicinity of its 2010 lows in the 120 area or even lower. This implies further turmoil in Europe early next year, which is hardly surprising given the disorderly crew who are running Europe. Actually, it is surprising that the euro is not a lot lower considering what has gone down in Europe in the recent past - it would appear that the markets have been hanging in and hoping for a solution - tough luck if one isn't forthcoming.



If the PM sector is signaling a major deflationary episide, then we should see signs of topping action in the broad stockmarket, and we do. A large Head-and-Shoulders top is completing in the S&P500 index, and with the index high in the Right Shoulder we are believed to be at an excellent point go short, buy bear ETFs etc, which we will be reviewing on the site shortly. One leading market commentator who actually has a very good track record recently said that the markets will continue higher "because people are going to continue getting up in the morning and going out to work in order to buy stuff for themselves and their families". Oh, is that right? - try telling that to the 50% of Spanish youth who are out of work and can't find it no matter how hard they try BECAUSE THE JOBS DON'T EXIST due to the economy of Spain being ravaged by deflation, aggravated by the bursting of a huge property bubble - and what about American workers in the early 30's? - they didn't go around asking "buddy can you spare a dime?" because they were lazy ****ers - they were likewise the victims of deflation. This same writer portrayed the 2008 market meltdown as a "once in a lifetime event", implying that everything's OK now and that "the great bull will climb the wall of worry". That might be so if the problems exposed by the 2008 financial crisis had been properly dealt with, but they weren't, they were simply "swept under the rug" - papered over with more of the stuff that created the problems in the first place - debt and derivatives - which means that the forces of deflation have now built up to staggering proportions - the lamed zombie banks, who exist now only to line the pockets of their elite executives and sluice fuinds in the direction of favored politicians, and governments nursing monumental debt overhangs are now powerless in the face of the oncoming deflationary train wreck. The final denouement will be when bond markets crash and interest rates skyrocket - that's when creditors will finally get the message that they are not going to get a penny back. One big reason for the current procrastination is that big private creditors are scrambling to use the current window of opportunity to offload as much bad paper as possible onto governments and thus the taxpayer before the final collapse.



Let's stand back a moment now to consider the larger implications of all these developments on the charts. The breakdowns now occurring across the PM sector are an indication that the forces of deflation are set to assert themselves and come to the fore. These forces have always been there, lurking in the background since the first major deflationary convulsion back in 2008, and their intent is to cleanse the world economic system of the dross of the gargantuan debt and derivatives overhang that is bringing the world economy to a dead stop. The key point to understand here is that these forces may be kept at bay for a while but they cannot be stopped - and creating even more debt and derivatives in an effort to stave off their impact, which is what central banks and governments have been doing since 2008, simply creates a more disastrous situation later on. Thus the accelerated ramping of the money supply and the maintenance of "zombie banks" and the propping up of bond and stockmarkets is an open invitation to disaster on a massive scale. There is still a widespread assumption that somehow "they" will fix it, they will muddle through by creating money out of nothing, juggling things around and engaging in firefighting where deflation threatens to break out and we will eventually come out of the end of the tunnel. We have even fallen for this ourselves having been fooled temporarily by the COTs and other data which it has to be said may be being tampered with. The problem is that the continued increases in debt and derivatives have created a situation that is dangerously unstable and now increasingly out of control. There is also a widespread assumption that that the entrenched powers that be, Goldman Sachs, the Republican Party etc are unassailable and immortal - that's what the Tsar of Russia and his family thought before they were summarily shot by the Bolsheviks in 1918. Nothing is forever.

2012 is going to suck - it probably won't be as bad as the movie "2012", but it's going to suck. Prepare yourselves as best you can - that's what we are going to do on www.clivemaund.com