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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 2MAR$ who wrote (84621)	12/15/2011 9:07:02 AM
From: 2MAR$	Respond to of 217652

Au showing no interest retaking $1600 this am

To: 2MAR$ who wrote (84621)	12/16/2011 2:13:30 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217652

The unpayable debt is crushing, and The unbelievable leverage must blow That which is issued in most quantity must tank Countries w/ one-way trapdoor capital account would be emulated If so, only freedom transit capital money would be ... Gold n silver, and they would be outlawed in enough places. In the mean time, just in per greed n fear · Risk aversion has not ended with last week’s EU summit in Brussels because the crisis has not ended. GREED & fear will continue for now to give the benefit of the doubt to the “risk-off” trade on the view that the Eurozone crisis has not reached its conclusion. Risk assets remain vulnerable to continuing euro-tremors or a euroquake. · While the ECB has done just about all it can to ease bank refinancing concerns, there is also the looming sovereign debt refinancing schedule facing European governments next year. That is why 2012 is likely to be the defining year of the crisis in terms of whether the Eurozone breaks up or moves towards a credible fiscal union. GREED & fear’s base case remains fiscal union. · The euro has finally weakened below the key 1.32 technical level, helped by Ben Bernanke’s failure to announce QE3 at this week’s FOMC meeting. Still GREED & fearwould be very surprised if the first half of 2012 did not see some form of QE3 in America with the issue being how much the US dollar rallies in the interim. · The key issue for China next year is the timing of an easing in PRC policy towards China’s all-important residential property market. The best guess is now that such an easing should be forthcoming during 2Q12. By then there should be enough evidence of a weakening in the housing market to allow the political leadership to declare victory in its campaign to bring the housing market to heal, while the dynamics of slowing growth should have created the incentive or political pressure to make such a move. · If the authorities do not relax the policy by the middle of next year they risk a crash in property prices, which could have a dramatic effect on overall growth given the massive multiplier role of the residential property sector in the mainland economy. · In an ideal world the PRC authorities would probably like to keep a lot of their restrictions on the private residential property market in place until the projected five-year social housing programme of 36m units is completed in 2015. But that would prove far too big a risk to growth. · Monetary policy in China remains restrictive despite the recent 50bp cut in the reserve requirement ratio. This was primarily driven by the need to offset recent evidence of capital outflows. Much more important is the loan quota where there is no evidence of an imminent significant easing. · There is a commonly held view in Beijing that China made a policy mistake in 2009 in terms of the extent of the stimulus launched post-Lehman, which is why conditions would have to get very dire to prompt a counter cyclical stimulus of a similar magnitude. · On the NPL risk posed to the Chinese banking sector by those 2009 loans to the local government financing vehicles, all the evidence is that defaults will be avoided for now through the extension of maturity and forbearance on the part of creditors. GREED & fear does not believe this is a systemic issue about to hit the Chinese economy or banking system. · A major buying opportunity is coming in China when the government gives the property easing signal and the monetary easing signal. Still the problem for investors who want to time the exact bottom is that political circumstances dictate that the easing signal can only be given after there is more evidence of falling property prices. There has also to be much more material evidence of slowing growth for the economy as a whole before there can be any dramatic moves in terms of monetary or fiscal easing. · GREED & fear will maintain the current stance in the Asia Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio of hedging the small overweight in China with a much bigger underweight in Australia because the hoped for inflection point in China, in terms of property easing, is almost contingent on a hard landing scare story in China centred on the property market. · The small overweight in China will be increased by 1ppt this week by further shaving the overweight in India where the inflation data this week does not give the Reserve Bank of India an excuse to ease. By contrast, there is growing potential for Chinese headline CPI to fall sharply in coming months. · GREED & fear also remains concerned about the potential further hit to the rupee that could occur in a euroquake, in the context of a generalised US dollar rally against “risk” currencies. By contrast, the most that is likely to happen to the renminbi for now is that it is pegged again to the US dollar. Still the consensus view in Beijing is for a slower pace of renminbi appreciation in 2012, say 3%. · A key structural issue for the new PRC leadership team due to come into power in October 2012 is whether the transition triggers a new surge of reform. The reformers within the government would like to see major efforts made towards improving the flow of credit to the private sector in China which is after all responsible for virtually all job generation. · GREED & fear’s view remains that the command economy model can keep going in 2012 with any sudden deceleration in growth caused by the property tightening and restrictive monetary policy likely to prove the catalyst to a policy inflection point that could excite the local stock market which remains, as ever, policy obsessed. CLSA is committed to reducing consumption for a better environment and is ISO14001 certified. The content of this communication is subject to CLSA Legal and Regulatory Notices These can be viewed at clsa.com or sent to you upon request.

To: 2MAR$ who wrote (84621)	12/16/2011 7:24:22 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217652

Roche failed to show for dinner last night, but j walker made it. In any case both been more right than wrong re macro from a decade back, and gold can tap 1400 between now and 90 days from now. The boyz are not abandoning gold, if truth more convinced than ever re soundness of gold wager. I aim to buy physical next week as n when n if planned launch of 2012 panda coins happen.