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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gronieel2 who wrote (6856)	12/18/2011 6:31:12 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

On today's Moneytalk Program, Brinker predicted that 4Q2011 economic grow WILL BE BETTER THAN that for 3Q2011. During the 3rd hour guest interview segment today, Bob interviewed the lady tax expert ("Barbara Weltman" - JK Lasser) again. It is an excellent review of year-end tax planning for those interested. Catching the delayed broadcast on those stations like WMAL through the Tunein APP for iPADS or streaming over the internet on your PC for that station is worthwhile from my viewpoint. P

To: gronieel2 who wrote (6856)	12/19/2011 7:57:48 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Hi Gronieel2: Does the writer see "weakness" in the stock market(s) consistent with last two recession calls by ECRI? He just conveniently ignores that reality. Interesting he looks at past economic data and coincident data speculated to be a part of ECRI proprietary black box to arrive at his "snap-shot" conclusion. ECRI uses a forecasting model of things to come. Justa

To: gronieel2 who wrote (6856)	12/22/2011 10:04:20 PM
From: marc ultra	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

In terms of being an actionable recession call I have to say the ECRI call so far is something between not helpful or a downright flop particularly given the dramatic urgency they communicated throughout the financial media following the call. If you talk about a wildfire contagion spreading throughout the economic indicators, and unemployment likely rising over 10%, then someone apparently flew some unexpected planes dumping water over that wildfire. Since the call we've had improving weekly jobless claims, and a number of OK or improving numbers that at worst could be considered a mixed bag. They now say it could take a year before we know if their call is correct. Well I don't know a lot of wildfires that I'm willing to wait a year to decide whether to put it out or defend my home against the possibility. The bottom line is the ECRI call has become irrelevant as has most everything else. The market is moving in lockstep with European worries and how the European crisis goes will also affect the world and US economy. As I noted at the time it's possible that Europe will bail out the ECRI but they are successfully kicking the can further down the road for the moment and we don't know when and if one of those kicks will send it hurtling down a ravine. If the ECRI soberly said their indicators suggest a recession is likely ahead but the timing is unclear they would have been fine. We are now over 3 months out from the call and what's clear to me is they were either wrong or irresponsible given the dramatic dire language they used in explaining the call. Steve Liesman's statement to Lak ithat "I don't even know what that means," when Lak kept using the word contagion and wouldn't name any specific indicator seems very appropriate. Contagion used together with wildfire says to me someone with TB is in the room with me and has a hacking cough emitting a disgusting phlegm ball into my face, not someone with a low grade fever in another town.