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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mooter775 who wrote (1429)	11/21/1997 8:45:00 AM
From: Paul Dubsky	Respond to of 27311

Everything you say seems pretty sensible. Breaking below the 200 day moving average is not good; however, it did it before and recovered. The only concern I have is that in the past, it recovered on the same day. Consolation indicates that $7 is pretty good support. My trading theory at this point, buy now and lower to load up on cheap shares, and then unload my more expensive shares right before 12/31 for the tax loss. I certainly can't keep adding to my long term position in VLNC, I'm way too weighted in it as it stands. Sure, if it goes to $5, then I'm not getting in at good prices. But, if it stays around $7 through the end of the year, then I get 1) cheaper shares and 2) a tax loss on my more expensive shares. This way, I don't risk being out of Valence should it take off before the end of the year. The IRS requires a 30 day window between the time you sell (or buy) a security and when you buy (or sell) it back to recognize the tax loss. A lot of people think that as long as they don't buy back a security within 30 days from when they sold it, they can recognize any loss incurred against gains (and regular income, up to $3,000). However, the same holds true if you first buy it, then sell it within 30 days. You have to have a 30 day window on either side of a tax loss sell. Anyhow, I think the person who mentioned the crisis in South Korea as a contributing facotr in yesterday's decline is probably most accurate. News this am is that the South Korean govt is going to ask the IMF (Int'l Monetary Fund) for about 7 Billion dollars in assistance to help support their falling currency and rising inflation pressures. Short term, definitely not good. But again, the Hanil/Valence JV is a longer term deal that is icing on the cake. They will not be the only JV in town. I'm sure VLNC is pursuing other JVs in other areas of the world, as they stated in the conference call and 10Q. As long as the NI plant is on track, and OEM deals come through, we'll be ok. Paul

To: mooter775 who wrote (1429)	11/21/1997 8:46:00 AM
From: John Curtis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

Mooter: Your commentary sounds logical. If true, it's too bad the institution is so constrained as to allow it's program tools to dictate exclusive buy/sell policy. Would you follow your mechanisms advice given what you know about VLNC at this point if it recommended you sell because of the CEO 7% commentary? One should never be so blind as to rely exclusively on program tools, a little gambling needs to be a part of the game(ie. the "no guts, no glory" philosophy)......but I'll admit that's anathemal to most institutional philosophy, derivative plays aside. ;-) I certainly would be talking back to my tools, basically saying......."What? Sell now?? Are you nuts??" heh. VLNC is just too sweet to ignore, much less walk away from right now, imo. Regards! John~